Opening Statement from the November 2015 CCPM Forecaster
Originally published on November 1, 2015
As expected, commodities mounted a nice retracement rally last month after suffering a harsh selloff over the past few months. Tenured subscribers are well aware of our bearish forecasts for the overall commodities market since early 2011.
Oddly, many individuals were calling for commodities to soar during late 2010 and 2011 because they were still riddled with a hyperinflation fantasy. The primary reason we forecast a gradual collapse in the overall commodities market was due to significant risks of global deflation.
For several years we have been discussing our concerns of weak global demand as the primary cause of global disinflation and periodic deflation in select nations. This persistent trend of reduced output has been responsible for the deflation of the commodities bubble. And this same trend is responsible for reductions in global growth.
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