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Opening Statement from the August 2016 Intelligent Investor

Opening Statement from the August 2016 Intelligent Investor

Originally published on August 4, 2016

 

It is important to remind investors that we are in a trend of declining earnings growth (four quarters thus far and most likely five expected once Q2 reporting has finished) as well as a mild but noticeable decline in economic strength in the US and global economies.

Finally, there should be no doubt that recent events (primarily the results of the UK referendum) have added to economic weakness and uncertainty throughout the globe. 

For nearly two years we have been discussing various macroeconomic risks to economic growth and equities performance. During this period, the US stock market largely traded sideways reflecting these risks.

And although we have seen no fundament improvements in either the economy or earnings, the US stock market has rebounded from the large selloff sparked by the results of UK’s referendum vote to leave the EU on June 23rd. In recent weeks, the stock market has formed a trend of higher record highs, consistent with our July forecast.

So what’s going on? Despite many solid reasons for stocks...

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