Opening Statement from the August 2019 CCPM Forecaster
Originally published on August 4, 2019
On July 31, 2019 Fed Chairman Powell announced the most highly anticipated change in interest rates in more than a decade. With 100 percent of fed funds futures traders betting on a rate cut for several weeks prior to the Fed’s July FOMC meeting, the Fed did not disappoint when it announced a 25-basis point cut in the federal funds rate when it met.
During the weeks leading up to the FOMC blackout period (one week prior to the Saturday preceding an FOMC meeting and the Thursday following that meeting) investors interpreted Powell’s statements to mean that a rate cut would be coming during the July FOMC meeting. And because Powell failed to make statements that might otherwise cause investors to question whether a rate cut would be announced, he was essentially signaling to investors that rates would be cut during the July meeting.
This article continues.
To continue viewing this entry please sign in to your Client or Member account.
Restrictions Against Reproduction: No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without the prior written permission of the copyright owner and the Publisher.
These articles and commentaries cannot be reposted or used in any publications for which there is any revenue generated directly or indirectly. These articles cannot be used to enhance the viewer appeal of any website, including any ad revenue on the website, other than those sites for which specific written permission has been granted. Any such violations are unlawful and violators will be prosecuted in accordance with these laws.
Article 19 of the United Nations' Universal Declaration of Human Rights: Everyone has the right to freedom of opinion and expression; this right includes freedom to hold opinions without interference and to seek, receive and impart information and ideas through any media and regardless of frontiers.
This publication (written, audio and video) represents the commentary and/or criticisms from Mike Stathis or other individuals affiliated with Mike Stathis or AVA Investment Analytics (referred to hereafter as the “author”). Therefore, the commentary and/or criticisms only serve as an opinion and therefore should not be taken to be factual representations, regardless of what might be stated in these commentaries/criticisms. There is always a possibility that the author has made one or more unintentional errors, misspoke, misinterpreted information, and/or excluded information which might have altered the commentary and/or criticisms. Hence, you are advised to conduct your own independent investigations so that you can form your own conclusions. We encourage the public to contact us if we have made any errors in statements or assumptions. We also encourage the public to contact us if we have left out relevant information which might alter our conclusions. We cannot promise a response, but we will consider all valid information.