"Never argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience." –Mark Twain
If you want to fully understand and appreciate the work of Mike Stathis, from his market forecasts and securities analysis to his political and economic analyses, you will need to learn how to think clearly if you already lack this vital skill.
For many, this will be a cleansing process that could take quite a long time to complete depending on each individual.
The best way to begin clearing your mind is to move forward with this series of steps:
1. GET RID OF YOUR TV SET, AND ONLY USE STREAMING SERVICES SPARINGLY.
2. REFUSE TO USE YOUR PHONE TO TEXT.
3. DO NOT USE A "SMART (DUMB) PHONE" (or at least do not use your phone to browse the Internet unless absolutely necessary).
4. STAY AWAY FROM SOCIAL MEDIA (Facebook, Instagram, Whatsapp, Snap, Twitter, Tik Tok unless it is to spread links to this site).
5. STAY OFF JEWTUBE.
6. AVOID ALL MEDIA (as much as possible).
The cleansing process will take time but you can hasten the process by being proactive in exercising your mind.
You should also be aware of a very common behavior exhibited by humans who have been exposed to the various aspects of modern society. This behavior occurs when an individual overestimates his abilities and knowledge, while underestimating his weaknesses and lack of understanding. This behavior has been coined the "Dunning-Kruger Effect" after two sociologists who described it in a research publication. See here.
Many people today think they are virtual experts on every topic they place importance on. The reason for this illusory behavior is because these individuals typically allow themselves to become brainwashed by various media outlets and bogus online sources. The more information these individuals obtain on these topics, the more qualified they feel they are to share their views with others without realizing the media is not a valid source with which to use for understanding something. The media always has bias and can never be relied on to represent the full truth. Furthermore, online sources are even more dangerous for misinformation, especially due to the fact that search algorithms have been designed to create confirmation bias.
A perfect example of the Dunning-Kruger Effect can be seen with many individuals who listen to talk radio shows. These shows are often politically biased and consist of individuals who resemble used car salesmen more than intellectuals. These talking heads brainwash their audience with cherry-picked facts, misstatements, and lies regarding relevant issues such as healthcare, immigration, Social Security, Medicaid, economics, science, and so forth. They also select guests to interview based on the agendas they wish to fulfill with their advertisers rather than interviewing unbiased experts who might share different viewpoints than the host.
Once the audience has been indoctrinated by these propagandists, they feel qualified to discuss these topics on the same level as a real authority, without realizing that they obtained their understanding from individuals who are employed as professional liars and manipulators by the media.
Another good example of the Dunning-Kruger Effect can be seen upon examination of political pundits, stock market and economic analysts on TV. They talk a good game because they are professional speakers. But once you examine their track record, it is clear that these individuals are largely wrong. But they have developed confidence in speaking about these topics due to an inflated sense of expertise in topics for which they continuously demonstrate their incompetence.
One of the most insightful analogies created to explain how things are often not what you see was Plato's Allegory of the Cave, from Book 7 of the Republic.
We highly recommend that you study this masterpiece in great detail so that you are better able to use logic and reason. From there, we recommend other classics from Greek philosophers. After all, ancient Greek philosophers like Plato and Socrates created critical thinking.
If you can learn how to think like a philosopher, ideally one of the great ancient Greek philosophers, it is highly unlikely that you will ever be fooled by con artists like those who make ridiculous and unfounded claims in order to pump gold and silver, the typical get-rich-quick, or multi-level marketing (MLM) crowd.

If you want to do well as an investor, you must first understand how various forces are seeking to deceive you.
Most people understand that Wall Street is looking to take their money.
But do they really understand the means by which Wall Street achieves these objectives?
Once you understand the various tricks and scams practiced by Wall Street you will be better able to avoid being taken.
Perhaps an even greater threat to investors is the financial media.
The single most important thing investors must do if they aim to become successful is to stay clear of all media.
That includes social media and other online platforms with investment content such as YouTube and Facebook, which are one million times worse than the financial media.
The various resources found within this website address these two issues and much more.
Remember, you can have access to the best investment research in the world. But without adequate judgment, you will not do well as an investor.
You must also understand how the Wall Street and financial media parasites operate in order to do well as an investor.
It is important to understand how the Jewish mafia operates so that you can beat them at their own game.
The Jewish mafia runs both Wall Street and the media. This cabal also runs many other industries.
We devote a great deal of effort exposing the Jewish mafia in order to position investors with a higher success rate in achieving their investment goals.
Always remember the following quotes as they apply to the various charlatans positioned by the media as experts and business leaders.
“Beware of false prophets, which come to you in sheep's clothing, but inwardly they are ravening wolves.” - King James Bible - Matthew 7:15
"It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled." –Mark Twain
It's also very important to remember this FACT. All Viewpoints Are Not Created Equal.
Just because something is published in print, online, or aired in broadcast media does not make it accurate.
More often than not, the larger the audience, the more likely the content is either inaccurate or slanted.
The next time you read something about economics or investments, you should ask the following question in order to determine the credibility of the source.
Is the source biased in any way?
That is, does the source have any agendas which would provide some kind of benefit accounting for conclusions that were made?
Most individuals who operate websites or blogs sell ads or merchandise of some kind. In particular, websites that sell precious metals are not credible sources of information because the views published on these sites are biased and cannot be relied upon.
The following question is one of the first things you should ask before trusting anyone who is positioned as an expert.
Is the person truly credible?
Most people associate credibility with name-recognition. But more often than not, name-recognition serves as a predictor of bias if not lack of credibility because the more a name is recognized, the more the individual has been plastered in the media.
Most individuals who have been provided with media exposure are either naive or clueless. The media positions these types of individuals as “credible experts” in order to please its financial sponsors; those who buy advertisements.
In the case of the financial genre, instead of name-recognition or media celebrity status, you must determine whether your source has relevant experience on Wall Street as opposed to being self-taught. But this is just a basic hurdle that in itself by no means ensures the source is competent or credible.
It's much more important to carefully examine the track record of your source in depth, looking for accuracy and specific forecasts rather than open-ended statements. You must also look for timing since a broken clock is always right once a day. Finally, make sure they do not cherry-pick their best calls. Always examine their entire track record.
Don't ever believe the claims made by the source or the host interviewing the source regarding their track record.
Always verify their track record yourself.
The above question requires only slight modification for use in determining the credibility of sources that discuss other topics, such as politics, healthcare, etc.
We have compiled the most extensive publication exposing hundreds of con men pertaining to the financial publishing and securities industry, although we also cover numerous con men in the media and other front groups since they are all associated in some way with each other.
There is perhaps no one else in the world capable of shedding the full light on these con men other than Mike Stathis.
Mike has been a professional in the financial industry for nearly three decades.
Alhough he publishes numerous articles and videos addressing the dark side of the industry, the core collection can be found in our ENCYCLOPEDIA of Bozos, Hacks, Snake Oil Salesmen and Faux Heroes.
Also, the Image Library contains nearly 8,000 images, most of which are annotated.
At AVA Investment Analytics, we don't pump gold, silver, or equities because we are not promoters or marketers.
We actually expose precious metals pumpers, while revealing their motives, means, and methods.
We do not sell advertisements.
We actually go to great lengths to expose the ad-based content scam that's so pervasive in the world today.
We do not receive any compensation from our content, other than from our investment research, which is not located on this website.
We provide individual investors, financial advisers, analysts and fund managers with world-class research and unique insight.
If you listen to the media, most likely at minimum it's going to cost you hundreds of thousands of dollars over the course of your life time.
The deceit, lies, and useless guidance from the financial media is certainly a large contributor of these losses.
But a good deal of lost wealth comes in the form of excessive consumerism which the media encourages and even imposes upon its audience.
You aren’t going to know that you’re being brainwashed, or that you have lost $1 million or $2 million over your life time due to the media.
But I can guarantee you that with rare exception this will become the reality for those who are naïve enough to waste time on media.
It gets worse.
By listening to the media you are likely to also suffer ill health effects through excessive consumption of prescription drugs, and/or as a result of watching ridiculous medical shows, all of which are supportive of the medical-industrial complex.
And if you seek out the so-called "alternative media" as a means by which to escape the toxic nature of the "mainstream" media, you might make the mistake of relying on con men like Kevin Trudeau, Alex Jones, Joe Rogan, and many others.
This could be a deadly decision. As bad as the so-called "mainstream" media is, the so-called "alternative media" is even worse.
There are countless con artists spread throughout the media who operate in the same manner. They pretend to be on your side as they "expose" the "evil" government and corporations.
Their aim is to scare you into buying their alternatives. This addresses the nutritional supplements industry which has become a huge scam.
Why Does the Media Air Liars and Con Men?
The goal of the media is NOT to serve its audience because the audience does NOT pay its bills.
The goal of the media is to please its sponsors, or the companies that spend huge dollars buying advertisements.
And in order for companies to justify these expenses, they need the media to represent their cause.
The media does this by airing idiots and con artists who mislead and confuse the audience.
By engaging in "journalistic fraud," the media steers its audience into the arms of its advertisers because the audience is now misled and confused.
The financial media sets up the audience so that they become needy after having lost large amounts of money listening to their "experts." Desperate for professional help, the audience contacts Wall Street brokerage firms, mutual funds, insurance companies, and precious metals dealers that are aired on financial networks. This is why these firms pay big money for adverting slots in the financial media.
We see the same thing on a more obvious note in the so-called "alternative media," which is really a remanufactured version of the "mainstream media." Do not be fooled. There is no such thing as the "alternative media." It really all the same.
In order to be considered "media" you must have content that has widespread channels of distribution. Thus, all "media" is widely distributed.
And the same powers that control the distribution of the so-called "mainstream media" also control distribution of the so-called "alternative media."
The claim that there is an "alternative media" is merely a sales pitch designed to capture the audience that has since given up on the "mainstream media."
The tactic is a very common one used by con men.
The same tactic is used by Washington to convince naive voters that there are meaningful differences between the nation's two political parties.
In reality, both parties are essentially the same when it comes to issues that matter most (e.g. trade policy and healthcare) because all U.S. politicians are controlled by corporate America. Anyone who tells you anything different simply isn't thinking straight.
On this site, we expose the lies and the liars in the media.
We discuss and reveal the motives and track record of the media’s hand-selected charlatans with a focus on the financial media.
To date, we know of no one who has established a more accurate track record in the investment markets since 2006 than Mike Stathis.
Yet, the financial media wants nothing to do with Stathis.
This has been the case from day one when he was black-balled by the publishing industry after having written his landmark 2006 book, America's Financial Apocalypse.
From that point on, he was black-balled throughout all so-called mainstream media and then even the so-called alternative media.
With very rare exception, you aren't even going to hear him on the radio or anywhere else being interviewed.
Ask yourself why.

You aren't going to see him mentioned on any websites either, unless its by people whom he has exposed.
You aren't likely to ever read or hear of his remarkable investment research track record anywhere, unless you read about it on this website.
You should be wondering why this might be.
Some of you already know the answer.
The media banned Mike Stathis because the trick used by the media is to promote cons and clowns so that the audience will be steered into the hands of the media's financial sponsors - Wall Street, gold dealers, etc.
Because the media is run by the Jewish mafia and because most Jews practice a severe form of tribalism, the media will only promote Jews and gentiles who represent Jewish businesses.
And as for radio shows and websites that either don't know about Stathis or don't care to hear what he has to say, the fact is that they are so ignorant that they assume those who are plastered throughout media are credible.
And because they haven't heard Stathis anywhere in the media, even if they come across him, they automatically assume he's a nobody in the investment world simply because he has no media exposure. And they are too lazy to go through his work because they realize they are too stupid to understand the accuracy and relevance of his research.
Top investment professionals who know about Mike Stathis' track record have a much different view of him. But they cannot say so in public because Stathis is now considered a "controversial" figure due to his stance on the Jewish mafia.
Most people are in it for themselves. Thus, they only care about pitching what’s deemed as the “hot” topic because this sells ads in terms of more site visits or reads.
This is why you come across so many websites based on doom and conspiratorial horse shit run by con artists.
We have donated countless hours and huge sums of money towards the pursuit of exposing the con men, lies, and fraud.
We have been banned by virtually every media platform in the U.S and every website prior to writing about the Jewish mafia.
Mike Stathis was banned by all media early on because he exposed the realities of the United States.
The Jewish mafia has declared war on us because we have exposed the realities of the U.S. government, Wall Street, corporate America, free trade, U.S. healthcare, and much more.
Stathis has also been banned by alternative media because he exposed the truth about gold and silver.
We have even been banned from use of email marketing providers as a way to cripple our abilities to expand our reach.
You can talk about the Italian Mafia, and Jewish Hollywood can make 100s of movies about it.
BUT YOU CANNOT TALK ABOUT THE JEWISH MAFIA.
Because Mr. Stathis exposed so much in his 2006 book America's Financial Apocalypse, he was banned.
He was banned for writing about the following topics in detail: political correctness, illegal immigration, affirmative action, as well as the economic realities behind America's disastrous healthcare system, the destructive impact of free trade, and many other topics. He also exposed Wall Street fraud and the mortgage derivatives scam that would end of catalyzing the worst global crisis in history.
It's critical to note that the widespread ban on Mr. Stathis began well before he mentioned the Jewish mafia or even Jewish control of any kind.
It was in fact his ban that led him to realize precisely what was going on.
We only began discussing the role of the criminality of the Jewish mafia by late-2009, three years AFTER we had been black-listed by the media.
Therefore, no one can say that our criticism of the Jewish mafia led to Mike being black-listed (not that it would even be acceptable).
If you dare to expose Jewish control or anything under Jewish control, you will be black-balled by all media so the masses will never hear the truth.
Just remember this. Mike does not have to do what he is doing.
Instead, he could do what everyone else does and focus on making money.
He has already sacrificed a huge fortune to speak the truth hoping to help people steer clear of fraudsters and to educate people as to the realities in order to prevent the complete enslavement of world citizenry.
Rule #1: Those With Significant Exposure Are NOT on Your Side.
No one who has significant exposure should ever be trusted. Such individuals should be assumed to be gatekeepers until proven otherwise. I have never found an exception to this rule.
Understand that those responsible for permitting or even facilitating exposure have given exposure to specific individuals for a very good reason. And that reason does not serve your best interests.
In short, I have significant empirical evidence to conclude that everyone who has a significant amount of exposure has been bought off (in some way) by those seeking to distort reality and control the masses. This is not a difficult concept to grasp. It's propaganda 101.
Rule #2: Con Artists Like to Form Syndicates.
Before the Internet was created, con artists were largely on their own. Once the Internet was released to the civilian population, con artists realized that digital connectivity could amplify their reach, and thus the effectiveness of their mind control tactics. This meant digital connectivity could amplify the money con artists extract from their victims by forming alliances with other con artists.
Teaming up with con artists leads to a significantly greater volume of content and distraction, such that victims of these con artists are more likely to remain trapped within the web of deceit, as well as being more convinced that their favorite con artist is legit.
Whenever you wish to know whether someone can be trusted, always remember this golden rule..."a man is judged by the company he keeps." This is a very important rule to remember because con men almost always belong to the same network. You will see the same con artists interviewing each other,referencing each other, (e.g. a hat tip) on the same blog rolls, attending the same conferences, mentioning their con artist peers, and so forth.
Rule #3: There's NO Free Lunch.
Whenever something is marketed as being "free" you can bet the item or service is either useless or else the ultimate price you'll pay will be much greater than if you had paid money for it in the beginning.
You should always seek to establish a monetary relationship with all vendors because this establishes a financial link between you the customer and the vendor. Therefore, the vendor will tend to serve and protect your best interests because you pay his bills.
Those who use the goods and services from vendors who offer their products for free will treated not as customers, but as products, because these vendors will exploit users who are obtaining their products for free in order to generate income.
Use of free emails, free social media, free content is all complete garbage designed to obtain your data and sell it to digital marketing firms.
From there you will be brainwashed with cleverly designed ads. You will be monitored and your identity wil eventually be stolen.
Fraudsters often pitch the "free" line in order to lure greedy people who think they can get something for free.
Perhaps now you understand why the system of globalized trade was named "free trade."
As you might appreciate, free trade has been a complete disaster and scam designed to enrich the wealthy at the expense of the poor.
There are too many examples of goods and services positioned as being free, when in reality, the customers get screwed.
Rule #4: Beware of Manipulation Using Word Games.
When manipulators want to get the masses to side with their propaganda and ditch more legitimate alternatives they often select psychologically relevant labels to indicate positive or negative impressions.
For instance, the financial parasites running America's medical-industrial complex have designated the term "socialized medicine" to replace the original, more accurate term, "universal healthcare." This play on words has been done to sway the masses from so much as even investigating universal healthcare, because the criminals want to keep defrauding people with their so-called "market-based" healthcare scam, which has accounted for the number one cause of personal bankruptcies in the USA for many years.
When Wall Street wanted to convince the American people to go along with NAFTA, they used the term "free trade" to describe the current system of trade which has devastated the U.S. labor force.
In reality, free trade is unfair trade and only benefits the wealthy and large corporations.
There are many examples on this play on words such as the "sharing economy" and so on.
Rule #5: Whenever Someone Promotes Something that Offers to Empower You, It's Usually a Scam.
This applies to the life coaches, self-help nonsense, libertarian pitches, FIRE movement, and so on.
If it sounds too good to be true, it usually is.
Unlike what the corporate fascists claim, we DO need government.
And no, you can NOT become financially independent and retire early unless you sell this con game to suckers.
Rule #6: "Never argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience." –Mark Twain
Following this rule is forcing the small and dewindling group of intelligent people left in the world to cease interacting with people.
You might need to get accustomed to being alone if you're intelligent and would rather not waste your time arguing with someone who is so ignorant, that they have no chance to realize what's really going in this world.
It would seem that Dunning-Kruger has engulfed much of the population, especially in the West.
Update: A few weeks after this article was published I received an email from Kitco's senior analyst, which has been published below.

Dear Mike,
I took the liberty of trying to contact you in the wake of reading your January 31st article on gold and John Williams.
If EVER there was a more cogent, cut-to-the-chase, honest, devastating article about EXACTLY what is going on out there in this industry at the moment, well, your article has to be IT.
Honestly, I am stunned at how well you seized on the situation, and could not be more in accord with what you wrote.
I will try to open people's eyes with your excellent analysis. Take it from someone who has been in this industry since 1977. You are SPOT ON. Kudos to you.
You might have heard that, based on MY commentaries at Kitco, http://www.kitco.com/ind/index.html#nadler I have become the whipping boy to the hypesters and to the radical extremist gold bugs.Sincerely,
Jon NadlerSenior AnalystKitco Metals Inc.North America
Kitco Senior Gold Analyst Agrees with My Views on Gold
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If you look around on the various gold bug web sites, you are likely to see the same crowd posting the same lines of hyperinflation and everything else they can conjure up in order to scare people into loading up on excessive amounts of physical gold. Note the emphasis on “physical gold” rather than gold ETFs.
Never mind that gold has very little utility. Never mind that physical gold is not considered a liquid asset. Never mind that gold hacks are financially tied into rising gold prices and therefore have a financial interest in pumping up the price of gold. You should buy gold and hold it because it’s going to continue to rise in price as the end of the dollar nears, right? Not so fast.
Recently, I discussed one key aspect of the gold story no one has ever mentioned…
“Remember, gold dealers make a living by selling gold rather than buy and holding onto it. This activity is contrary to what one would expect if gold dealers really felt that gold will continue to rise in price. Thus, at the same time dealers are advising you to buy physical gold and hold it long-term, they are buying and selling it. In doing so, dealers are not only taking advantage of the price volatility, they are also maintaining a very liquid position in gold because they realize that one of these price corrections will represent the beginning of the end of the gold bull market. This means they are making money trading gold short-term, which reduces their risk, all while advising you to use a buy-and-hold strategy.
Moreover, those who make money from gold ads and commercials aren’t spending that money buying gold. Thus, those who own gold must keep these points in mind whenever they hear ridiculous predictions like the end of the dollar and hyperinflation as support for gold price “forecasts” because the best way to make money from gold is to sell it, or else sell the idea that the price of gold has no ceiling.” [1]
While most gold bugs preach myths and exaggerate the macroeconomic picture as a result of misguided views from their sources, others have been fueled by a more intentional motive when disseminating their marketing campaign for gold.
The fact that tens of thousands of gold bugs agree that gold offers “protection against inflation” and the “inevitable and permanent collapse of the dollar” should serve as sufficient impetus for you to convert all or at least a good deal of your investment capital and savings into gold bullion, right? Not if you truly understand the full picture. I previously discussed the proper use of gold and silver in another recent article. [2]
It would appear that a great deal of individuals who own gold and silver have a poor understanding of macroeconomics and investments. This is the target audience the gold hacks have focused on because it represents an easy sales pitch as you can imagine.
Some of these individuals don’t have much of an investment portfolio consisting of stocks because they don’t have much savings to invest. Others have lost all faith in the integrity of the U.S. capital markets, so they don’t want to risk losing more than they already have. As a result, many of these individuals have a sizable portion of their entire investment portfolio in precious metals. Needless to say, this is a very dangerous move because gold will not remain above $1000 forever. When the gold bull market ends, it is likely to end without much warning.
Loading up on gold at current prices is even a very dangerous move for sophisticated investors who realize the gold bull market will not last forever. While they think they will be able to unload gold prior to its collapse, history shows that most people are likely to get stuck holding the bag when it empties.
Ever since the financial crisis, thousands of gold hacks have propagated greatly exaggerated and misguided views of the U.S. economy so as to heighten widespread panic. They have insisted that the U.S. will soon encounter a period of hyperinflation that will make the dollar virtually worthless. And they have positioned gold as the solution to the dollar’s demise. Indeed, it has been a boon for conspiracy figures from radio and television, as they have convinced their frustrated and confused audience that Armageddon in the U.S. is not far away. [3]
Everywhere you turn you’re likely to run across these hacks, as their propaganda has infected virtually every website in some form or another, whether through gold ads and economic articles, YouTube videos, or interviews from gold hacks in print and broadcast media.
While the U.S. economy is certainly in bad shape, it’s not as bad as gold hacks and perpetual doomers would have you believe. Over the past couple of years, I detailed the state of the U.S. economy on several occasions. [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11]
Prior to the economic fallout, I wrote a 500-page analysis in 2006 (America’s Financial Apocalypse) to support my claims that the U.S. would face a depression spearheaded by a collapse in the real estate bubble, so it’s not as if I think things are rosy.
Furthermore, in this book I also forecast gold to head to $1400 with a good deal of certainty, and potentially higher thereafter. Thus, no one can make the claim that I am a gold “basher.”
Through my experience managing assets on Wall Street, as well as my work in the venture capital industry, I feel I have a pretty good understanding of valuation, risk, and the relationship each shares with the other.
However, you don’t exactly need to be an expert in valuation or risk management to understand this relationship. It’s quite simple. The higher an asset price rises, the higher the risk becomes. This is especially the case for assets that possess very little intrinsic value, such as the case with gold.
But forget about my views for a moment. After all, I’m not one of the “experts” designated by the media, so you don’t see me plastered all over the financial networks. So how could anything I say hold much credibility? If that is the basis of your conclusions then you really have no idea how the media works. I have discussed how the media intentionally dupes its audience on numerous occasions. [12]
Only on rare occasion will you find accurate and unbiased investment guidance from the financial media. Instead, the media opts to air a regular selection of individuals from its pool of extremists and marketing professionals who have been positioned as investment experts. The media covers both extremes, from the perma-bulls to the perma-bears. The only problem with this approach is that extreme views are never profitable over the long haul because things change. Thus, knowing when to shift gears is of vital importance.
We all know how the media is filled with perma-bulls. This extreme view represents the main theme of the financial media because this is how the media makes most of its money through promoting the agendas of Wall Street. 
But the media has also formed a strong bond with perma-bears because this strategy not only offers another source of ad revenues, it also serves to convince its audience that they are giving you both sides of the picture.
The only problem is that extreme views, whether they are aligned with the bull market or bear market mentality will lead to losses more than gains.
When we examine the propaganda from gold bugs and perma-bears, this is all too obvious. For instance, Marc Faber has gone on record as stating he is 100% certain that the U.S. will experience hyperinflation. Moreover, he has even stated that gold will never again fall below $1000. [13]
Note that the media source that conducted this interview (Business Insider) refers to him as a guru. That should tell you all you need to know about Business Insider. It’s a common trick used by the media. They want you to think they are providing you with value so they will always position those they interview as experts despite the fact that very rarely does this turn out to be the case. The most important ingredient one can use to determine credibility is to examine a person’s track record. This is something the media never does when selecting its “experts.” [14] [15] [16] [17]
Perhaps Mr. Faber drank a bit too much wine during this interview. Once you take a good look at Faber’s track record, you might agree his credibility is in question at best.
Like his perma-bear peers, Faber has been calling for doom year after year. He is likely to continue this mantra for the rest of his life. And because every economy has good times as well as bad, his predictions have very little meaning. Similar to other perma-bears, Faber is like the pig who cried wolf.
This barrage of gold propaganda and doom over the past couple of years has set the stage for predictions of gold soaring to the moon, with forecasts such as $5000, $10,000 and even $20,000 per ounce. Many others who propagate similar exaggerations are gold dealers, like Peter Schiff. Schiff has gone on record “predicting” that gold would hit $10,000 per ounce and perhaps even higher.

I can tell you this. The only way gold would hit $10,000 an ounce is if all of these gold hacks convince enough people that it will to the extent that they buy enough gold to drive the price to $10,000. Nothing else will drive the price of gold to this level. It is impossible to forecast gold prices based on valuation metrics since it has very little if any inherent value.
Gold bugs have been trying to scare people and infect them with greed so they will buy gold and raise the price. Thus, rather than predictions, these wild claims serve only to function as a self-fulfilling prophecy. Even some of the gold dealers who stand to benefit from soaring gold prices think Schiff’s forecasts of $5000 and $10,000 are ridiculous.
Will gold head to $2000 per ounce? It’s certainly quite possible. What about $2500? That too is a possibility. For prudent investors, the most important question is not how high the price of gold will rise, but when to exit gold because when the gold bull market ends, the price will collapse and remain low for many years. Prudent investors focus on valuation and risk in order to create entry and exit strategies because this forms the basis of a responsible investment management process.
Regardless how high gold rises, the rise in price has nothing to do with real investment dynamics. It’s pure speculation. Sophisticated investors understand this. In my opinion, the gold pumping campaign resembles a pyramid scheme whereby gold dealers profit, along with those who bought gold earlier in the bull market. Meanwhile, most of the people buying gold at these levels stand to lose money down the road because they have no exit strategy. They have been convinced that gold will remain above $1000 per ounce forever. This assumption is not valid and is likely to cost many people a lot of money.
The pumping of gold seems to have no limits. The following video features another gold hack (Mike Maloney) who predicts gold to soar to at least $15,000. I find it ironic that thestreet.com interviewed this individual. If you don’t already know the reality behind thestreet.com, I suggest you get up to speed. [18]

Others who receive indirect forms of compensation in exchange for pumping gold have made similar “predictions.” The same can be said of their credibility in my opinion. Remember, not only does timing matter, but the fine details are also very important. That means you cannot claim to have predicted much of anything when you have been saying the same thing for 15 years, because as we all know, eventually it rains even in the dessert.
If you have been listening to those who have preached doom for many years, you missed out on tremendous gains. Even when the collapse occurred, if you had listened to the investment advice these individuals provided, you are likely to have lost more than those who remained in the stock market.
The bottom line is simple. If you are not able to get things right in a manner that leads to net investment gains, then you are better off with a buy-and-hold investment strategy.
In reality, gold bugs are not offering legitimate predictions. They are trying to create a self-fulfilling prophecy. You see, because there is no way to value gold using accepted forms of valuation, the price is determined solely by perceived value, which is itself based on the anticipation of price appreciation. So if all of the gold bugs keep telling you that gold will reach $5000 or even $10,000 all while creating doomsday scenarios, it just might reach $5000, but only if YOU make it happen. That’s not investing. It’s speculating because such price levels are not sustainable, nor are they based on valid economic fundamentals.
In practice, many gold bugs are involved in what I feel resembles penny stock pump-and-dump scams. You’re probably familiar with how these scams work. I see them almost every day. A wave of propaganda is pumped out to unsophisticated investors who believe the hype and exaggerations by stock promoters. And while these worthless stocks sometimes rise substantially in price, the party usually ends without warning, leaving most people stuck holding the bag after it has emptied. One invariable characteristic of these scams is that the promoters never discuss the risks.
Tens of thousands of individuals and hundreds of gold dealers are involved in the movement to pump up the price gold because their bank accounts swell as more people buy it. But one does not need to be a gold dealer in order to cash in on this gravy train. In many cases, just being a gold hack can make you a good deal of money in the form of gold ads on websites.
My advice to you is this. If you do not see articles or interviews about gold that discuss the other sides of the picture by unbiased experts, you should stay away from these media sources. Investors must learn to recognize when a financial show or website serves as a cheerleading session versus a source of open debate and unbiased analysis. While many televised and radio shows are disguised as an open debate, the reality is much different. The often one-sided picture painted on most websites is much more obvious to those with an objective mindset. 
Back in early 2008, John Williams predicted the U.S. would experience hyperinflation by 2010. Williams’ predictions of hyperinflation predated this period. Of course, 2010 came and went without any signs of hyperinflation.
Recently Williams updated his report and is calling for the same in 2011, but adds it will certainly come no later than 2014. For the remainder of this piece, we will examine this report.
Let’s have a look at a couple of Williams’ statements.
“Risks are high for the hyperinflation beginning to break in the year ahead; it likely cannot be avoided beyond 2014.”
“…risks are particularly high of the hyperinflation crisis breaking within the next year.”
I recall several gold hacks preaching the same lines over and over, all while predicting gold would reach $5000 by 2010.
Other gold hacks warned about a complete collapse of the economy by the end of 2009, then 2010. Many of these same individuals are saying the same thing about 2011.
Those who have listened to these hacks have missed out on more than 85% gains from the largest stock market rally since the Great Depression. While I realize the economy is not improving in an absolute sense, I have kept my clients in the U.S. stock market ever since recommending a buy when the Dow reached 6500 in March 2009. [19] [20]
Most likely the gold hacks will continue to say the same thing next year and the year after, over and over until people finally realize the sewer of doom caused them to miss out on lucrative investment opportunities. If you have been paying attention to the media, you know who these individuals are. But they are also infested throughout the Internet.
Williams goes on to link the rise in the price of gold with a declining dollar. While this relationship is partially valid, it is not as clear-cut or consistent as he and other gold bugs have claimed. A much more direct relationship exists between a declining dollar and rising oil prices. This is something all top Wall Street professionals realize. I will get back to this relationship later.
When I first stumbled upon Williams’ report, thoughts of the late Matt Simmons immediately came to mind. As you might recall, Simmons was known as an “expert” and maverick from the oil industry who wrote a book about peak oil that caught on with many oil bugs.
Simmons was certainly not alone in his predictions of rising oil prices. Many others made similar forecasts. However, Simmons’ forecasts failed to include key drivers of oil demand, namely that of Southeast Asia. As a result, Simmons approached his thesis from a near-sighted standpoint rather than a big picture perspective. Thus, from an economic and investment perspective, I was not impressed by this book.
Prior to his recent and sudden departure, you might recall Simmons’ wild predictions that British Petroleum wouldn’t make it through the summer and would definitely file for bankruptcy. [21]
Even the oil services research firm he founded disagreed with his analysis and upgraded the stock after his ridiculous statements. [22]

When you create this type of drama you will position yourself as a good candidate for TV interviews because the media loves to create drama, panic and fear. This type of programming drives a large audience with which the media can air ads and commercials. And this is how the media makes its money.
I do not know for certain whether Simmons’ goal was to gain media exposure through his wild claims. Alternatively, perhaps he had become a bit senile in his later years.
The case of Mr. Simmons is similar to that of Mr. Williams because it points to the critical need to decipher between extremists and realists. Doing so could prevent you from losing a good deal of money over time.
When it comes to gold we have seen the same song and dance. Forget about credibility as demonstrated by a person’s track record; forget about the fact that many of these gold bugs have financial agendas tied to their “predictions” of hyperinflation, and myths that gold serves as a hedge against inflation.
All that matters to gold hacks is that they generate publicity so that they can make money selling gold, securities, gold-related books and newsletters, or making speaking appearances at gold investment conferences.
In fact, Peter Schiff, Marc Faber and other members of the media club have hit the public speaking circuit, charging thousands of dollars for appearances. The question you need to ask yourself is this. Do credible investment strategists spend most of their time at speaking events, giving interviews in the media, making daily YouTube videos and pumping articles to hundreds of websites, or do they spend it doing research? I spend most of my time doing research and submitting it to my clients.
The tremendous financial opportunities that come with media exposure account for strict adherence to the rules set forth by the media. These rules basically state that “you cannot expose the truth about our sponsors, and you cannot let our audience know that we are liars and jug heads.”
Everyone you see interviewed by the media goes along with this code of conduct because they want free publicity. If the media has any reason to believe that you will violate this code of conduct, you will be banned. This is how the game is played. It explains why you have never heard anyone from the major networks in the U.S. raise the issue of why not one of the Wall Street executives has been indicted for committing blatant securities fraud that resulted in the collapse of the global economy.
Rather than a source of unbiased news and insight, the U.S. media serves as a whore for corporate, Wall Street and government interests. The sooner you realize this, the better off you will be.
In the past I have discussed the fact that hyperinflation is not a possibility in the U.S., at least in our lifetime. I addressed this topic because I felt the need to act responsibly in attempt to caution amateur and professional investors alike, who have been bombarded by this propaganda. Unlike others who preach the opposite, I have nothing to gain by alerting Main Street to these realities other than the satisfaction knowing that I helped investors avoid huge losses. [23] [24]
Before I dismantle Williams’ hyperinflation prediction, I think it’s important to consider a few things about me.
First, I am not a deflationist. This designation comprises a large category of extremists who have insisted that the U.S. has been in a deflationary environment since 2008 (mostly amateurs writing blogs), and academic economists who warn either warn of deflation, or else have concluded that the U.S. is closer to deflation than inflation.
Second, I made predictions of an inflationary depression in America’s Financial Apocalypse. I came to this conclusion because I felt the Federal Reserve would continue to try to print its way out of the mess as it had in the past. In my opinion, there was no way the Fed would permit deflation of any significant duration. As well, I studied inflation trends and other data prior to forming my conclusion.
I stated that if things got really bad the U.S. would experience periods of deflation. But the longer-term trend would be that of massive inflation, which is much different than hyperinflation. Other than brief deflationary periods which follow crises (which we saw in late 2008 and early 2009), the Fed has at its disposal the ability to flood banks with money. This would prevent a lasting period of deflation. This is the Fed’s game plan. But the Fed’s debasement of the dollar will not lead to hyperinflation.
I might end up being wrong about the duration of deflation we are likely to encounter over the next several years, although I do not (currently) anticipate this to be likely. But I can tell you I am 100% confident that the U.S. will not enter hyperinflation, at least in our life time.
You might want to compare my track record with Faber’s, Schiff’s or anyone else who has made these claims before you decide whose “100%” is likely to be valid. But don’t forget to account for those of us who may or may not have financial agendas tied to the price of gold and the absolute and permanent collapse of the dollar. If you are not closely monitoring track records and agendas, you’re walking into a landmine thinking you’ve been given a safe route by guys who face no danger.
Third, I am not an inflationist. I have no agenda for holding firmly onto my forecasts for inflation. Unlike others, I am not pitching an investment strategy that relies on sticking with an underlying macroeconomic theme. I am not a salesman. I report what I see based on the continuous research I conduct. If I determine that hyperinflation will become a possibility, I will state this to be the case.
Fourth, I do not sell gold or silver and I do not receive any compensation for gold, silver or any other ads. Moreover, I do not sell securities. Thus, my views on inflation and deflation are untainted. In fact, many of my investment recommendations stand to perform much better if the U.S. experiences hyperinflation. My only goal is to navigate the economic environment and capital markets in a manner that positions my clients ahead of the curve.
If the Federal Reserve is determined to print its way out of this depression, why won’t hyperinflation occur in the U.S.?
First, with very rare exception, hyperinflation has been the worst economic consequence of destabilized (politically and/or economically) second and third world nations. While the U.S. certainly has a good deal of issues to resolve, it is very far from resembling a destabilized second or third world nation.
Second, in order to experience hyperinflation a nation must flood astronomical amounts of currency into the banking system rapidly and continuously. Conservatively, I would define hyperinflation as a long duration of increasing levels of inflation at 30% to 40% per month. Many others have defined it at higher levels.
Moreover, this flood of currency must be made widely available to consumers and businesses so that demand for goods is dwarfed by the available supply. As we know, despite the printing of currency over the past two years, very little has reached consumers and businesses. Finally, this demand must continue to increase each month at a very high rate.
Although U.S. banks have not provided credit to businesses and consumers in proportion to the amount that has been issued by the Federal Reserve, inflation has been increasing throughout the globe due various stimulus packages, the carry trade and other forms of speculation by banks and other financial institutions. But still, we do not even see any sign of massive inflation at this stage, although I feel it is very likely in the future.
What is the definition of massive inflation?
It depends on who you ask and the nation under consideration. In my opinion, massive inflation would resemble what the U.S. faced in the late 1970s and early 1980s, which is not even in the same universe as hyperinflation. Alternatively, we could experience a more protracted but less severe period of inflation. Either way, hyperinflation in the U.S. is not a reasonable possibility in our life time.
Third, the Federal Reserve is able to print an excessive amount of currency without creating a proportionate increase in the inflation rate because of two factors. First, the U.S. runs trade deficits with much of the world. This is especially the case with Asia. This alone serves to export inflation out of the U.S. This dynamic is aided by the dollar-oil link. Second, China’s currency peg has actually diminished the chances of a hyperinflationary event in the U.S. While China will eventually lift this peg, it will be a gradual process. Even if both of these relationships were to change abruptly, they would not lead to hyperinflation.
Why?
The principal force making hyperinflation a virtual impossibility in the U.S. is the dollar-oil link. As a consequence of this link, it could be argued that the dollar is not exactly a true fiat currency. At the same time, the dollar is not backed by a finite asset directly under its possession, although the Saudis realize that any threat to decouple the dollar from oil sales would be met with very severe and immediate consequences. Therefore, the U.S. has a good deal of influence in maintaining this vital economic link.
Regardless whether or not you consider the dollar a true or partial fiat currency, the end result remains the same. The dollar-oil link enables the U.S. to print an excessive amount of currency without a proportionate increase in inflation. Since the dollar is used to buy oil throughout the world, the U.S. actually exports a good deal of the inflation created by the Federal Reserve. Similar to others who fail to understand the importance of the dollar-oil link, Williams concludes that the fiat currency in the U.S. combined with the reckless actions of the Federal Reserve will lead to hyperinflation.
“With the creation of massive amounts of new fiat dollars (not backed by gold or silver) will come the eventual destruction of the value of the U.S. dollar and related dollar-denominated paper assets.” (p.4 paragraph 1)
Large amounts of inflation, such as that seen during the late 1970s and early 1980s can be managed through prudent monetary policies of the Federal Reserve. Hyperinflation, by contrast signals the end of the currency. While I feel the dollar still has a considerable amount of downside over the next few years, it isn’t destined for use as toilet paper unless Washington and the Fed decide this as its fate. And if you believe that to be the case, you’re likely to be a bit too conspiratorial for your own good.
Let’s consider some additional points that add to this argument. The U.S. has the most powerful and aggressive military force in the world combined with the most advanced technological resources money can buy. No one can dispute that. In the end, the currency of a nation is not only backed by the perception of a nation’s ability to repay its creditors, but also by the ability of these creditors to force the indebted nation to repay its loans.
In addition to the very strong link between the dollar and oil, the dollar is also linked to commodities markets worldwide. That means is that you cannot buy commodities without the dollar. This too has made the dollar the world’s universal currency. Without the dollar’s link to commodities, the U.S. would surely experience extraordinarily high levels of inflation. The extent of inflation would depend not only on the Federal Reserve’s monetary response, but also the response of the U.S. military.
Thus, due to the dollar-oil link, it is the Middle East rather than China that ultimately controls the U.S. economy. The members of OPEC know this. Accordingly, if the dollar-oil link were threatened, Washington would send troops to Saudi Arabia immediately, and the Saudi Royal family is well aware of this.
The vital importance of the dollar-oil link to the U.S. economy explains why Iran has formed its own oil exchange opting for other currencies, and has tried (without any level of success) to encourage other OPEC members to do the same.
Saddam Hussein did the same thing in 2000, requiring payment in euros for Iraq’s oil. And we saw what happened to him. As you might imagine, Iran’s efforts to severe the dollar-oil link have served as the primary impetus for Washington’s campaign to find a way to justify military actions against Iran.
Finally, if for whatever reason the dollar-oil link were severed or even weakened, the Federal Reserve would alter monetary policy to adjust to the more vulnerable position of the dollar. Incidentally, quantitative easing represents one of the ways the Fed is positioning to protect against the possibility of a global dump of dollars.
To support his prediction of hyperinflation, Williams first points to numerous events in the past. He implies these events serve as evidence of the misguided path taken by the Federal Reserve.
“…Recognizing that the U.S. economy was sagging under the weight of structural changes created by government trade, regulatory and social policies -- policies that limited real consumer income growth -- Mr. Greenspan played along with the political and banking systems. He made policy decisions to steal economic activity from the future, fueling economic growth of the last decade largely through debt expansion... Complicit in this broad malfeasance was the U.S. government, including both major political parties in successive Administrations and Congresses. As with consumers, the federal government could not make ends meet while appeasing that portion of the electorate that could be kept docile by ever-expanding government programs and increasing government spending. The solution was ever-expanding federal debt and deficits.” (p.2, paragraphs 2-4)
“The U.S. economy is in a deepening structural change that has resulted from U.S. trade, social and regulatory policies driving a goodly portion of the U.S. manufacturing and technology base offshore. As a result, a large number of related, high paying jobs have disappeared for U.S. workers. Accordingly, U.S. consumers have found increasingly that their household incomes fail to keep up with inflation. Without real growth in income, there cannot be sustained economic growth...” (p.13, paragraph 2)
While the statements made by Williams are largely true, his hyperinflationary scenario is not valid. Among his other poorly-formed arguments, Williams bases this scenario on the assumption that nothing will ever be done to curb spending, cut entitlements and raise taxes. These are predictions I laid forth in America’s Financial Apocalypse. While these actions will certainly have negative ramifications for economic growth and living standards, they represent a good portion of the required changes; changes that will definitely be made.
Williams goes on to conclude that the U.S. will face a hyperinflationary great depression. He claims this will cause a “likely realignment of the U.S. political environment.” (p.2, paragraph 1)
What Williams fails to understand is that there will be no political system collapse as long as the media is able to keep Americans brainwashed to think they have a real democracy. In reality, the U.S. political system has resembled a fascist regime for several decades. The latest example of the media’s control over Americans can be seen by the farce of the Tea Party movement, which has gone from being a group of angry Americans that sought to fight against the Washington mafia, to a group of largely republican supporters.
I summed up the current state of the U.S. in a recent article discussing America’s Second Great Depression…
“Regardless who is in office, these criminally destructive policies will continue as one would expect with any fascist nation. Although the definition of fascism is not clearly agreed upon by many authorities, I use the definition embraced by Benito Mussolini, which attributes fascism as a partnership between government and corporations. This is similar to corporatism, a political system whereby legislative authority is provided to corporate bodies representing economic, industrial and professional groups. Rather than the people, these corporate bodies dictate the laws of the nation.
This is precisely what we see in the U.S., with CEOs of the Fortune 50 wielding more power than any senator or congressman. Corporations exert their control over Washington via huge sums of money shuttled to politicians by lobbyists. Moreover, the corporate giants provide Washington with often illegal if not unconstitutional access to the nation’s backbone, whether it is in the telecommunications, railway and air transport, or banking sectors. In return for these favors, Washington permits these corporate giants to e
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