Opening Statement from the February 2018 Intelligent Investor
Originally published on February 8, 2018 (pre-market release)
Preliminary Analysis of the Recent Market Correction
The recent stock market selloff began on Friday, February 2 with the Dow closing down by 650 points. This correction was not at all surprising and was certainly needed as discussed in previous forecasts. The selloff appears to have been influenced by the increased speculation that a more rapid pace of rate hikes is now more likely versus previous expectations as a result of the BLS Employment Situation data released on Friday, February 2. Combined with the upward move in government bond yields, investors apparently saw this as a good opportunity to take some money off the table.
In recent forecasting presentations we emphasized that because we believed any stock market selloff over the near term would most likely be unpredictable due to the presence of strong fundamentals, we advised against selling positions in order to try and anticipate a possible selloff since we believed the market would head higher once it recovered from such a correction.
Our reasoning was rather simple. If the most dominant variables...
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