How to Think Clearly

"Never argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience." –Mark Twain

If you want to fully understand and appreciate the work of Mike Stathis, from his market forecasts and securities analysis to his political and economic analyses, you will need to learn how to think clearly if you already lack this vital skill.

For many, this will be a cleansing process that could take quite a long time to complete depending on each individual.

The best way to begin clearing your mind is to move forward with this series of steps:

1. GET RID OF YOUR TV SET, AND ONLY USE STREAMING SERVICES SPARINGLY.

2. REFUSE TO USE YOUR PHONE TO TEXT.

3. DO NOT USE A "SMART (DUMB) PHONE" (or at least do not use your phone to browse the Internet unless absolutely necessary).

4. STAY AWAY FROM SOCIAL MEDIA (Facebook, Instagram, Whatsapp, Snap, Twitter, Tik Tok unless it is to spread links to this site). 

5. STAY OFF JEWTUBE.

6. AVOID ALL MEDIA (as much as possible).

The cleansing process will take time but you can hasten the process by being proactive in exercising your mind.

You should also be aware of a very common behavior exhibited by humans who have been exposed to the various aspects of modern society. This behavior occurs when an individual overestimates his abilities and knowledge, while underestimating his weaknesses and lack of understanding. This behavior has been coined the "Dunning-Kruger Effect" after two sociologists who described it in a research publication. See here.

Many people today think they are virtual experts on every topic they place importance on. The reason for this illusory behavior is because these individuals typically allow themselves to become brainwashed by various media outlets and bogus online sources. The more information these individuals obtain on these topics, the more qualified they feel they are to share their views with others without realizing the media is not a valid source with which to use for understanding something. The media always has bias and can never be relied on to represent the full truth. Furthermore, online sources are even more dangerous for misinformation, especially due to the fact that search algorithms have been designed to create confirmation bias. 

A perfect example of the Dunning-Kruger Effect can be seen with many individuals who listen to talk radio shows. These shows are often politically biased and consist of individuals who resemble used car salesmen more than intellectuals. These talking heads brainwash their audience with cherry-picked facts, misstatements, and lies regarding relevant issues such as healthcare, immigration, Social Security, Medicaid, economics, science, and so forth. They also select guests to interview based on the agendas they wish to fulfill with their advertisers rather than interviewing unbiased experts who might share different viewpoints than the host.

Once the audience has been indoctrinated by these propagandists, they feel qualified to discuss these topics on the same level as a real authority, without realizing that they obtained their understanding from individuals who are employed as professional liars and manipulators by the media. 

Another good example of the Dunning-Kruger Effect can be seen upon examination of political pundits, stock market and economic analysts on TV.  They talk a good game because they are professional speakers. But once you examine their track record, it is clear that these individuals are largely wrong. But they have developed confidence in speaking about these topics due to an inflated sense of expertise in topics for which they continuously demonstrate their incompetence.

One of the most insightful analogies created to explain how things are often not what you see was Plato's Allegory of the Cave, from Book 7 of the Republic.

We highly recommend that you study this masterpiece in great detail so that you are better able to use logic and reason.  From there, we recommend other classics from Greek philosophers. After all, ancient Greek philosophers like Plato and Socrates created critical thinking.   

If you can learn how to think like a philosopher, ideally one of the great ancient Greek philosophers, it is highly unlikely that you will ever be fooled by con artists like those who make ridiculous and unfounded claims in order to pump gold and silver, the typical get-rich-quick, or multi-level marketing (MLM) crowd.





STOP Being Taken

If you want to do well as an investor, you must first understand how various forces are seeking to deceive you. 

Most people understand that Wall Street is looking to take their money.

But do they really understand the means by which Wall Street achieves these objectives? 

Once you understand the various tricks and scams practiced by Wall Street you will be better able to avoid being taken. 

Perhaps an even greater threat to investors is the financial media.

The single most important thing investors must do if they aim to become successful is to stay clear of all media.

That includes social media and other online platforms with investment content such as YouTube and Facebook, which are one million times worse than the financial media.

The various resources found within this website address these two issues and much more. 

Remember, you can have access to the best investment research in the world. But without adequate judgment, you will not do well as an investor.

You must also understand how the Wall Street and financial media parasites operate in order to do well as an investor. 

It is important to understand how the Jewish mafia operates so that you can beat them at their own game.

The Jewish mafia runs both Wall Street and the media. This cabal also runs many other industries.

We devote a great deal of effort exposing the Jewish mafia in order to position investors with a higher success rate in achieving their investment goals.

Always remember the following quotes as they apply to the various charlatans positioned by the media as experts and business leaders.   

“Beware of false prophets, which come to you in sheep's clothing, but inwardly they are ravening wolves.” - King James Bible - Matthew 7:15

"It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled." –Mark Twain

It's also very important to remember this FACT.  All Viewpoints Are Not Created Equal.

Just because something is published in print, online, or aired in broadcast media does not make it accurate. 

More often than not, the larger the audience, the more likely the content is either inaccurate or slanted. 

The next time you read something about economics or investments, you should ask the following question in order to determine the credibility of the source.

Is the source biased in any way?  

That is, does the source have any agendas which would provide some kind of benefit accounting for conclusions that were made? 

Most individuals who operate websites or blogs sell ads or merchandise of some kind. In particular, websites that sell precious metals are not credible sources of information because the views published on these sites are biased and cannot be relied upon.

The following question is one of the first things you should ask before trusting anyone who is positioned as an expert. 

Is the person truly credible?  

Most people associate credibility with name-recognition. But more often than not, name-recognition serves as a predictor of bias if not lack of credibility because the more a name is recognized, the more the individual has been plastered in the media. 

Most individuals who have been provided with media exposure are either naive or clueless. The media positions these types of individuals as “credible experts” in order to please its financial sponsors; those who buy advertisements. 

In the case of the financial genre, instead of name-recognition or media celebrity status, you must determine whether your source has relevant experience on Wall Street as opposed to being self-taught. But this is just a basic hurdle that in itself by no means ensures the source is competent or credible.

It's much more important to carefully examine the track record of your source in depth, looking for accuracy and specific forecasts rather than open-ended statements. You must also look for timing since a broken clock is always right once a day.  Finally, make sure they do not cherry-pick their best calls. Always examine their entire track record. 

Don't ever believe the claims made by the source or the host interviewing the source regarding their track record. 

Always verify their track record yourself. 

The above question requires only slight modification for use in determining the credibility of sources that discuss other topics, such as politics, healthcare, etc.

We have compiled the most extensive publication exposing hundreds of con men pertaining to the financial publishing and securities industry, although we also cover numerous con men in the media and other front groups since they are all associated in some way with each other.

There is perhaps no one else in the world capable of shedding the full light on these con men other than Mike Stathis.

Mike has been a professional in the financial industry for nearly three decades. 

Alhough he publishes numerous articles and videos addressing the dark side of the industry, the core collection can be found in our ENCYCLOPEDIA of Bozos, Hacks, Snake Oil Salesmen and Faux Heroes

Also, the Image Library contains nearly 8,000 images, most of which are annotated.


At AVA Investment Analytics, we don't pump gold, silver, or equities because we are not promoters or marketers.

We actually expose precious metals pumpers, while revealing their motives, means, and methods.

We do not sell advertisements.

We actually go to great lengths to expose the ad-based content scam that's so pervasive in the world today. 

We do not receive any compensation from our content, other than from our investment research, which is not located on this website. 

We provide individual investors, financial advisers, analysts and fund managers with world-class research and unique insight.







Media Lies

If you listen to the media, most likely at minimum it's going to cost you hundreds of thousands of dollars over the course of your life time.

The deceit, lies, and useless guidance from the financial media is certainly a large contributor of these losses.

But a good deal of lost wealth comes in the form of excessive consumerism which the media encourages and even imposes upon its audience.

You aren’t going to know that you’re being brainwashed, or that you have lost $1 million or $2 million over your life time due to the media.

But I can guarantee you that with rare exception this will become the reality for those who are naïve enough to waste time on media.

It gets worse.

By listening to the media you are likely to also suffer ill health effects through excessive consumption of prescription drugs, and/or as a result of watching ridiculous medical shows, all of which are supportive of the medical-industrial complex.

And if you seek out the so-called "alternative media" as a means by which to escape the toxic nature of the "mainstream" media, you might make the mistake of relying on con men like Kevin Trudeau, Alex Jones, Joe Rogan, and many others.

This could be a deadly decision. As bad as the so-called "mainstream" media is, the so-called "alternative media" is even worse.

There are countless con artists spread throughout the media who operate in the same manner. They pretend to be on your side as they "expose" the "evil" government and corporations.

Their aim is to scare you into buying their alternatives.  This addresses the nutritional supplements industry which has become a huge scam.  

 

Why Does the Media Air Liars and Con Men?

The goal of the media is NOT to serve its audience because the audience does NOT pay its bills.

The goal of the media is to please its sponsors, or the companies that spend huge dollars buying advertisements.

And in order for companies to justify these expenses, they need the media to represent their cause.

The media does this by airing idiots and con artists who mislead and confuse the audience.

By engaging in "journalistic fraud," the media steers its audience into the arms of its advertisers because the audience is now misled and confused.

The financial media sets up the audience so that they become needy after having lost large amounts of money listening to their "experts." Desperate for professional help, the audience contacts Wall Street brokerage firms, mutual funds, insurance companies, and precious metals dealers that are aired on financial networks. This is why these firms pay big money for adverting slots in the financial media.

We see the same thing on a more obvious note in the so-called "alternative media," which is really a remanufactured version of the "mainstream media." Do not be fooled. There is no such thing as the "alternative media."  It really all the same. 

In order to be considered "media" you must have content that has widespread channels of distribution. Thus, all "media" is widely distributed.

And the same powers that control the distribution of the so-called "mainstream media" also control distribution of the so-called "alternative media."

The claim that there is an "alternative media" is merely a sales pitch designed to capture the audience that has since given up on the "mainstream media."  

The tactic is a very common one used by con men.

The same tactic is used by Washington to convince naive voters that there are meaningful differences between the nation's two political parties.

In reality, both parties are essentially the same when it comes to issues that matter most (e.g. trade policy and healthcare) because all U.S. politicians are controlled by corporate America. Anyone who tells you anything different simply isn't thinking straight.

On this site, we expose the lies and the liars in the media.

We discuss and reveal the motives and track record of the media’s hand-selected charlatans with a focus on the financial media.  




 

Why Stathis Was Banned

To date, we know of no one who has established a more accurate track record in the investment markets since 2006 than Mike Stathis.  

Yet, the financial media wants nothing to do with Stathis.  

This has been the case from day one when he was black-balled by the publishing industry after having written his landmark 2006 book, America's Financial Apocalypse

From that point on, he was black-balled throughout all so-called mainstream media and then even the so-called alternative media. 

With very rare exception, you aren't even going to hear him on the radio or anywhere else being interviewed.  

Ask yourself why. 

You aren't going to see him mentioned on any websites either, unless its by people whom he has exposed.  

You aren't likely to ever read or hear of his remarkable investment research track record anywhere, unless you read about it on this website.

You should be wondering why this might be.

Some of you already know the answer.

The media banned Mike Stathis because the trick used by the media is to promote cons and clowns so that the audience will be steered into the hands of the media's financial sponsors - Wall Street, gold dealers, etc. 

Because the media is run by the Jewish mafia and because most Jews practice a severe form of tribalism, the media will only promote Jews and gentiles who represent Jewish businesses.  

And as for radio shows and websites that either don't know about Stathis or don't care to hear what he has to say, the fact is that they are so ignorant that they assume those who are plastered throughout media are credible.

And because they haven't heard Stathis anywhere in the media, even if they come across him, they automatically assume he's a nobody in the investment world simply because he has no media exposure.  And they are too lazy to go through his work because they realize they are too stupid to understand the accuracy and relevance of his research. 

Top investment professionals who know about Mike Stathis' track record have a much different view of him. But they cannot say so in public because Stathis is now considered a "controversial" figure due to his stance on the Jewish mafia. 

Most people are in it for themselves. Thus, they only care about pitching what’s deemed as the “hot” topic because this sells ads in terms of more site visits or reads.

This is why you come across so many websites based on doom and conspiratorial horse shit run by con artists.

We have donated countless hours and huge sums of money towards the pursuit of exposing the con men, lies, and fraud.

We have been banned by virtually every media platform in the U.S and every website prior to writing about the Jewish mafia.

Mike Stathis was banned by all media early on because he exposed the realities of the United States.

The Jewish mafia has declared war on us because we have exposed the realities of the U.S. government, Wall Street, corporate America, free trade, U.S. healthcare, and much more.

Stathis has also been banned by alternative media because he exposed the truth about gold and silver. 

We have even been banned from use of email marketing providers as a way to cripple our abilities to expand our reach. 

You can talk about the Italian Mafia, and Jewish Hollywood can make 100s of movies about it.

BUT YOU CANNOT TALK ABOUT THE JEWISH MAFIA.

Because Mr. Stathis exposed so much in his 2006 book America's Financial Apocalypse, he was banned.

He was banned for writing about the following topics in detail: political correctness, illegal immigration, affirmative action, as well as the economic realities behind America's disastrous healthcare system, the destructive impact of free trade, and many other topics. He also exposed Wall Street fraud and the mortgage derivatives scam that would end of catalyzing the worst global crisis in history. 

It's critical to note that the widespread ban on Mr. Stathis began well before he mentioned the Jewish mafia or even Jewish control of any kind.

It was in fact his ban that led him to realize precisely what was going on.

We only began discussing the role of the criminality of the Jewish mafia by late-2009, three years AFTER we had been black-listed by the media.

Therefore, no one can say that our criticism of the Jewish mafia led to Mike being black-listed (not that it would even be acceptable).  

If you dare to expose Jewish control or anything under Jewish control, you will be black-balled by all media so the masses will never hear the truth.

Just remember this. Mike does not have to do what he is doing. 

Instead, he could do what everyone else does and focus on making money. 

He has already sacrificed a huge fortune to speak the truth hoping to help people steer clear of fraudsters and to educate people as to the realities in order to prevent the complete enslavement of world citizenry. 

  

Rules to Remember

Rule #1: Those With Significant Exposure Are NOT on Your Side.  

No one who has significant exposure should ever be trusted. Such individuals should be assumed to be gatekeepers until proven otherwise.  I have never found an exception to this rule.

Understand that those responsible for permitting or even facilitating exposure have given exposure to specific individuals for a very good reason. And that reason does not serve your best interests. 

In short, I have significant empirical evidence to conclude that everyone who has a significant amount of exposure has been bought off (in some way) by those seeking to distort reality and control the masses. This is not a difficult concept to grasp. It's propaganda 101.   

Rule #2: Con Artists Like to Form Syndicates.

Before the Internet was created, con artists were largely on their own. Once the Internet was released to the civilian population, con artists realized that digital connectivity could amplify their reach, and thus the effectiveness of their mind control tactics. This meant digital connectivity could amplify the money con artists extract from their victims by forming alliances with other con artists.

Teaming up with con artists leads to a significantly greater volume of content and distraction, such that victims of these con artists are more likely to remain trapped within the web of deceit, as well as being more convinced that their favorite con artist is legit. 

Whenever you wish to know whether someone can be trusted, always remember this golden rule..."a man is judged by the company he keeps." This is a very important rule to remember because con men almost always belong to the same network.  You will see the same con artists interviewing each other,referencing each other, (e.g. a hat tip) on the same blog rolls, attending the same conferences, mentioning their con artist peers, and so forth.

Rule #3: There's NO Free Lunch.  

Whenever something is marketed as being "free" you can bet the item or service is either useless or else the ultimate price you'll pay will be much greater than if you had paid money for it in the beginning. 

You should always seek to establish a monetary relationship with all vendors because this establishes a financial link between you the customer and the vendor. Therefore, the vendor will tend to serve and protect your best interests because you pay his bills. 

Those who use the goods and services from vendors who offer their products for free will treated not as customers, but as products, because these vendors will exploit users who are obtaining  their products for free in order to generate income.   

Use of free emails, free social media, free content is all complete garbage designed to obtain your data and sell it to digital marketing firms.

From there you will be brainwashed with cleverly designed ads. You will be monitored and your identity wil eventually be stolen. 

Fraudsters often pitch the "free" line in order to lure greedy people who think they can get something for free. 

Perhaps now you understand why the system of globalized trade was named "free trade." 

As you might appreciate, free trade has been a complete disaster and scam designed to enrich the wealthy at the expense of the poor. 

There are too many examples of goods and services positioned as being free, when in reality, the customers get screwed.  

Rule #4: Beware of Manipulation Using Word Games. 

When manipulators want to get the masses to side with their propaganda and ditch more legitimate alternatives they often select psychologically relevant labels to indicate positive or negative impressions.

For instance, the financial parasites running America's medical-industrial complex have designated the term "socialized medicine" to replace the original, more accurate term, "universal healthcare." This play on words has been done to sway the masses from so much as even investigating universal healthcare, because the criminals want to keep defrauding people with their so-called "market-based" healthcare scam, which has accounted for the number one cause of personal bankruptcies in the USA for many years.  

When Wall Street wanted to convince the American people to go along with NAFTA, they used the term "free trade" to describe the current system of trade which has devastated the U.S. labor force.

In reality, free trade is unfair trade and only benefits the wealthy and large corporations.

There are many examples on this play on words such as the "sharing economy" and so on.  

Rule #5: Whenever Someone Promotes Something that Offers to Empower You, It's Usually a Scam.

This applies to the life coaches, self-help nonsense, libertarian pitches, FIRE movement, and so on.

If it sounds too good to be true, it usually is.

Unlike what the corporate fascists claim, we DO need government.

And no, you can NOT become financially independent and retire early unless you sell this con game to suckers.  

Rule #6: "Never argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience." –Mark Twain

Following this rule is forcing the small and dewindling group of intelligent people left in the world to cease interacting with people. 

You might need to get accustomed to being alone if you're intelligent and would rather not waste your time arguing with someone who is so ignorant, that they have no chance to realize what's really going in this world. 

It would seem that Dunning-Kruger has engulfed much of the population, especially in the West.     

Start Here

Understanding the Proper Use of Gold and Silver

 For a couple of years now, many investors have been bombarded with claims of hyperinflation and a Zimbabwe-like fate for the U.S. dollar. These gold bugs would have you believe that gold has value as a form of currency. They have made these claims hoping that everyone will line up to buy gold, so as to raise the price.

The swarm of gold bugs has reached out to cover every crevice of the media, from television and radio networks to print media and the Internet. And their efforts have been quite effective. Today, gold ATMs are being rolled out across the U.S. to take advantage of the hype generated by this misguided and deceptive movement of gold pumpers.

As I have discussed many times in the past, predictions of hyperinflation and a Zimbabwe-like fate for the dollar are complete nonsense. In my opinion, anyone who states otherwise is either a fool or else is lying in order to pump up the price of gold. [1] [2] [3]

Others have positioned gold as a hedge against deflation. While this is a valid investment strategy, the problem is that the U.S. is unlikely to face a deflationary period of long duration, but rather intermittent bouts of deflation over the next several years. The reason for this is simple. The Federal Reserve remains committed to printing its way through this economic depression. As you can imagine, this is only going to increase the duration and severity of this dark period.

Furthermore, because gold and silver experience bull-bear investment cycles of very long duration similar to other commodities (although I do not consider gold to be a pure commodity), a buy-and-hold strategy for gold and silver is very risky for those who do not have a relatively low cost basis because gold and silver are now in the later stages of their bull market cycle. The lower one’s cost basis, the larger one’s cushion to protect against price corrections, or even a trend reversal signaling the beginning of what promises to be a very long and painful bear market cycle.

So who’s right and who’s wrong about the big topics of debate? deflation or hyperinflation, gold and silver as a long-term investment versus their use as a cyclical investment. Those who have been following me for some time know my views on these issues. [4] [5]

When assessing the merit of the predictions/forecasts made by the army of gold bugs, you should pay particular attention to their bias and track record. The problem is that most people seem to be unable to accurately assess track records. Others simply don’t have the time or else have come to trust what the media has stated about their track records. This is a huge mistake.

Instead of focusing on specificity and accuracy, as well as the overall the hit-miss ratio and timing of forecasts, most people confuse open-ended statements with specific predictions. Others forget about the large number of bad calls made by their sources. Finally, most people do not bother to conduct a thorough examination in order to determine whether or not their sources have been making the same predictions for many years. These are very important considerations one must make. In fact, it would appear that most people seem to believe whatever is repeated the most by the largest number of individuals. This is human nature. However, such behavior often leads to a herd mentality. By now, you should understand the ultimate fate of the herd. [6]

The media has embraced the views of biased individuals and extremists whom they have positioned as “experts” for specific reasons. You must understand that the media is not concerned with broadcasting the views of credible and unbiased experts because this does nothing to boost its revenues. The financial media makes the vast majority of its revenues from selling ads, commercials and sponsorship for shows.

Because gold dealers, mutual fund companies, discount and full-service brokerage firms spend huge sums of money on advertisements, they must receive a healthy return on their investment in order to justify these marketing expenditures. As a result, the media engages in soft dollar arrangements as its primary criteria when determining what “experts” to interview.

Likewise, smaller firms (often one- and two-men shops that have been positioned as large firms) cannot afford to pay for commercials, so when their “experts” are interviewed by financial networks, they are careful not to say anything that would upset the large financial firms that furnish the bulk of ad revenue to these networks. After all, the last thing they would want to do is risk losing all of that free publicity.

You see a similar arrangement on websites focused on promoting gold and silver. Notice all of the gold and silver ads on these sites. Do you really think gold dealers would pay money to have their ads on sites that offered a neutral view of gold and silver (or permit a healthy debate)? Instead, these sites are littered with all kinds of doom and gloom, preaching hyperinflation, and featuring interviews and videos of the gold hacks from the media club. If you read enough of this stuff or watch some of the videos out there, you are likely to become scared out of your pants. That is precisely what they are there for.

No matter how bad things get, these doctors of doom have a solution for you, and it’s gold; but not gold stocks or ETFs. According to these prophets of wealth, only by purchasing the physical metals will you be saved from hyperinflation, or so they say. They offer all kinds of reasons why you need to buy the physical metal, stating the disadvantages of gold stocks and ETFs. But they never seem to tell you about the dangers of owning the physical metal. And they never bother to tell you when they are gold dealers or they are being paid by dealers to instill enough panic into you that you’re ready to load up on gold as you await the apocalypse.

This deceptive scam carried out by the media and its financial sponsors is quite common. And it’s easy to execute due to the trust the general public has in the media. When the media introduces these individuals, television and radio journalists position them as experts. During their introduction, they run through a list of so-called predictions these individuals claimed to have made, without truly verifying and analyzing these forecasts for themselves. The unverified and embellished introduction of these “experts” allows the media to demonstrate that it’s providing you with value, so you will stay tuned for the commercials, which represents the engine of the media revenues.

The same applies to the print media. The only difference in this case is that print media makes its money from ads. Therefore, simply by reading or subscribing to an article, the media is paid by those who pay for ads.

Media interviews with gold hacks and perma-bears often provide a multiplier effect when it comes to ad revenues from gold dealers and others. When these hacks depict Armageddon-like scenarios, it creates drama and panic, which usually attracts a large audience. The larger the audience, the higher the price charged for ads and commercials. Similarly, the larger the audience, the more people are likely to purchase gold from the media’s financial sponsors.

Alternatively, some might elect to purchase gold from other sources. But this also serves to increase the price of gold. Either way, gold dealers who pay for commercials and ads benefit when the media carries out these soft dollar arrangements, which serve as the foundation for the misguided views delivered by the media.

But you shouldn’t make the mistake of thinking that Wall Street doesn’t benefit when the media airs the views of gold hacks. Remember that Wall Street also deals in gold and silver. Thus, when these hacks encourage and even scare Main Street into buying precious metals (often for all of the wrong reasons), the Street can more effectively make money through manipulation of the gold and silver market.

Moreover, when the ridiculous predictions made by these gold hacks and perma-bears fail to pan out down the road, Main Street will ultimately fall back into the arms of Wall Street. This shift has already commenced. After these hacks continued to warn Main Street of a further collapse in the stock market ever since the summer of 2009, much of Main Street missed out on the greatest stock market rally since the Great Depression; a rally of over 80% and running. As a result, Main Street is already eyeing Wall Street as a more credible source of investment guidance.

In this manner, the media is able to please both ends of the extremist spectrum, all while taking its cut in the form of ads and commercials. The problem with this is that Main Street doesn’t benefit one bit because they are led astray. As a result, those who pay attention to the media are always behind the curve. This scam has been going on since the inception of the capital markets. Yet, millions still don’t seem to understand how they are being fooled.

When narrating their doomsday portrayal of hyperinflation and a dollar that has lost all of its value, gold bugs offer predictions and scenarios whereby people will use gold and silver to trade for food and water. As a result, many naïve individuals have bought gold in preparation for chaos.

Prior to acting on these claims, you need to separate gold and silver as an investment from gold and silver as a form of currency. For instance, if you believe the dollar will become worthless and people will use these metals to buy food and water, you should stock up on food and water rather than take the risk of buying gold or silver and holding it as you await the “chaos.” Of course gold bugs will never offer you this piece of advice because their only motive is to scare you into buying these metals.

As in the case with securities, the only thing that really drives gold prices is the supply-demand disparity. However, unlike securities, gold has no inherent value (while silver has only a minimal inherent value relative to securities) so its price is absent of valuation criteria used for securities pricing.

You might recall that Warren Buffet made a large purchase of silver (130 million ounces) beginning in 1997 at a cost basis of around $6 per ounce. At the time, Buffett’s silver holdings accounted for about 37% of the total supply of silver in the world. By 2006, he sold his entire position at a reported price of $7.50 per ounce. Although it’s impossible to determine for certain without asking him, in my opinion Buffett sold his position because it had reached fair value. But you’ll notice that Buffett doesn’t own much if any silver now. And he didn’t buy gold back in the 1990s and doesn’t own it now most likely because it does not have an inherent value.

In fact, Buffett knows what every competent investment professional knows about gold. Let’s have a look what Buffett had to say when asked about gold a few months ago.

"Look, (laughing), you could take all the gold that's ever been mined, and it would fill a cube 67 feet in each direction. For what that's worth at current gold prices, you could buy all -- not some -- all of the farmland in the United States. Plus, you could buy 10 Exxon Mobils, plus have $1 trillion of walking-around money. Or you could have a big cube of metal. Which would you take? Which is going to produce more value?" [7]

[You’ll notice the interviewer is none other than Ben Stein, one of the clowns in the financial media club. Similar to everyone else featured on CNBC, Stein has no idea what’s going on and never did. In my opinion, listening to anything he says represents a potential danger to your investments unless you do the opposite of what he says. People should be asking how it is that this guy still has a job after getting so many things so wrong. Think about it for a minute and you might be able to figure it out. If you you’re not sure, you might want to read my articles on the media.]

If you do elect to purchase gold and silver for investment purposes, I suggest you buy shares of the precious metal ETFs since they are more liquid and the transaction costs are lower. Certainly there are risks with this approach. But there are more risks and higher costs if you buy the physical metal in my opinion. Incidentally, this advice, as first discussed in America’s Financial Apocalypse accounts one of the reasons why I’ve been banned by the media and most websites. You see, gold bugs can’t make much money if investors opt for gold ETFs over the physical metal. That is specifically why you are unlikely to have ever heard a single gold bug recommend these ETFs. It’s all about money and agendas. They want to exploit you in order to put money in their pockets.

Furthermore, holding physical gold or silver does not allow one to capture gains through trading the characteristically high volatility observed with precious metals.

Finally, perhaps more important than anything else, if you elect to invest in precious metals, you must establish a definitive exit strategy, because as I have pointed out, these metals have no inherent value (especially gold). As a result, at some point, they will collapse back to historical levels and remain there for many, many years as they have in the past. And you don’t want to get stuck when the bag empties.  

You see, gold bugs have never discussed the need for devising an exit strategy because they want you to think that gold will remain high forever. And when it does finally come crashing down, they will be more than happy to take it off your hands as they reload their vaults and wait patiently for the next bull market. That means YOU are likely to be the one who sells to them at the bottom. This game is similar to the one Wall Street plays to get investors buy high and sell low.

Despite the fact that I am confident gold and silver will reach higher levels, I have personally chosen to remain out of this latest round of appreciation (although I might do some short-term trading). I have owned gold and silver in the past, but as I mentioned in the past, I sold out of my positions in 2009.

I do have some graded Silver Eagles which I purchased several years ago. But I bought these coins with the knowledge that I would be paying higher transaction costs and an added premium for their numismatic value. So for anyone who believes silver is headed to $100 or even $500 per ounce (as the gold bugs and their pigeons have claimed), please contact me and I will sell you my collection of Silver Eagles now while silver is still at the “low price” of $28 per ounce. [8]

Will I ever get back into gold or silver?

It depends on several factors. But I can tell you this. I have no plans to enter at current levels. In my opinion, the average investor should carefully consider whether or not to purchase gold or silver at current prices because the downside risk is quite high for those who intend to take a buy-and-hold approach.  

On the other hand, both metals are currently in a potential short- to intermediate-term correction mode. So if you are able to determine points of entry, you are likely to enter at levels that will provide a short or intermediate-term trading opportunity.

You might be wondering why I have no interest in gold or silver if I am confident each will rise higher. The answer is simple.

First, it’s a personal decision based on what I feel to be more lucrative investment opportunities adjusted for risk.

Second, I could be wrong in my forecast as I am only human and I do not have a crystal ball, unlike many of the gold hacks appear to have.

Third, I feel there is more downside than upside when viewed from a long-term perspective.

Fourth, I do not want to get stuck in precious metals if the stock market should correct or when the precious metals bull market ends. 

But why am I willing to hold stocks if I sense the risk of a market correction?

As I have been discussing for several months in my newsletter, the U.S. market remains very bullish. While this momentum could fade in coming weeks, the odds of retesting the March 2009 lows have diminished significantly in my view. However, that does not mean another large correction will not occur. It’s just that the downside has been greatly reduced.

Now if the market corrects I might get stuck in stocks, right?

Certainly, but I am willing to go with my ability to forecast major market moves, as I have done a pretty job of this in the past. Even if I miss a market correction, I have an understanding of the inherent value of the stocks I invest in. Each has a specific purpose and each has unique characteristics. Some of them pay dividends, others offer excellent growth potential.

Let me give you an example.

Let’s say I bought Microsoft, and six months later the stock market tanked. You on the other hand bought gold. Microsoft is a blue chip, so it’s a safe investment long-term. Plus it pays an annual dividend yielding 2.3%. And it has shown some nice dividend growth. Finally, it has at has reasonable growth potential for its size and safety.

In contrast, neither gold nor silver pay cash dividends, nor do they have inherent value (silver’s inherent value is minimal). Therefore, the price of each of these metals is only a reflection of the auction-related supply and demand (as well as periodic market manipulation which cannot be predicted consistently). Thus, unlike the case with Microsoft or other securities, the supply-demand force that determines precious metals pricing is not based on traditional valuation metrics.

So even though I might get stuck in Microsoft if the stock market collapses, over time shares are likely to rebound. And while I am waiting for the rebound I will receive cash dividends. In addition, the bull-bear market cycle exhibited by securities is much different than that of precious metals.

In short, securities pricing is based largely on earnings growth, dividend payout ratios, dividend growth, cash flows, and other metrics used in standard valuation methodology. In contrast, precious metals pricing is based on supply and demand, which is primarily driven by the perception of panic, as well as the myths that it protects against inflation. 

Moreover, gold (like silver) is being manipulated. While such manipulation has been good for gold investors and recently for silver investors, we are likely to see manipulation to the downside at some point. In fact, this might become the tipping point that pushes these metals back into their long-term bearish cycle. Even if you are an expert in technical analysis, it may not offer much help when trying to spot this trend reversal because asset wash-outs frequently break many rules of technical analysis. [9] [10] [11]

Furthermore, there is a good deal of counterfeit gold across the globe, as well as several cases of inadequate physical gold and silver to back paper sales. Rather than a catalyst to boost the price, once these issues become known to the masses, it too could lead to the tipping point whereby investors sell in mass, driving the price down in panic. Sure, this scenario is not particularly likely at this point. However, the possibility does exist so it is something we must keep in mind.

The counterpoint favoring gold as an investment is based on the fact that it typically serves as a hedge not against inflation, but against large market corrections. However, this is not always the case. Furthermore, we know the stock market is likely to rebound over time (unless it’s the Nikkei) while gold’s next big move is likely to be down as it enters the long bearish part of its bull-bear cycle. [12]

I use market forecasting to hedge against market downturns so I don’t need gold. For me, it represents a wasteful use of investment capital when utilized for this purpose. Thus, for individual investors who are actively managing their investments and who are able to forecast major market corrections, I see no real value in the use of gold as a hedge against market declines. [13] [14] [15] [16]

If you are a fund manager your situation is obviously different. Using gold as a hedge against market declines can represent a nice component of risk management for large funds since it can be difficult to liquidate all positions prior to or during the early stages of a market collapse.

Now, before you form your own conclusions about this analysis, I’d like you to consider a few things.

First, I do not receive a single penny of compensation in any form by discussing the positive or negative attributes of gold and silver as an investment.

Second, I do not hold any short positions in gold or silver, so I do not stand to benefit in any way from the price movement of either of these metals. In fact, as I have stated, because I hold Silver Eagles, one might assume I would offer a bullish forecast without any consideration of risk.

Third, I predicted gold to head to $1400 (with the possibility of reaching higher levels), and silver to $30 or higher in the 2006 publication of America’s Financial Apocalypse. Thus, I have established a track record of accurate forecasts while not holding a financial bias towards these metals. I’m not sure both of these conditions can be met by others who discuss these metals. I feel this is a very important consideration one should make to assess credibility.

It would be easy for me to jump aboard the precious metals band wagon. In fact, if I were to propagate the same delusions of imminent hyperinflation and make the false claim that gold protects against inflation as gold hacks have done, these websites would publish my articles and this would lead to more business for my firm. But I’m not interested in lying, and I’m not interested in working with suckers. I’m not willing to sell my integrity for “blood money.”

Instead, every gold bug website has banned my articles, including Kitco which I have previous labeled the CNBC of gold. That should tell you something. I’m not in the business of selling out. I don’t get paid by advertisers and I don’t sell securities or precious metals. I’m in the business of providing critical analysis and investment guidance to serious investors ranging from financial institutions and financial advisers, to individual investors.  

Regardless of my personal views about gold and silver, others will have different viewpoints and that’s fine. What’s good for me is not necessarily good for you because everyone is different and everyone has a difficult level of risk tolerance, a different skill set and a different number of alternative investment strategies. I’m not here to determine your suitability for investing in anything.

Many are likely to already have a position in gold or silver. Accordingly, I have released a special report discussing the short- and intermediate-term technical picture for gold and silver. In this report I have indentified what I feel to be the highest-probability entry points for short- and intermediate-term traders, and longer-term investors.


 

References:

[1] /article_details-64.html

[2] /article_details-320.html

[3] /article_details-589.html

[4] /article_details-291.html

[5] /article_details-293.html

[6] /article_details-150.html

[7] http://money.cnn.com/2010/10/18/pf/investing/buffett_ben_stein.fortune/index.htm

[8] /article_details-659.html

[9] /article_details-498.html

[10] /article_details-659.html

[11] /article_details-555.html

[12] /article_details-299.html

[13] /article_details-335.html

[14] /article_details-475.html

[15] /article_details-90.html

[16] /article_details-334.html

 

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