Below we have posted some important gold and silver charts that are relevant to the recent CCPM Forecaster webinar as well as the August CCPM Forecaster.
What to do?
First, this unexpected geopolitical event highlights the need to use stop orders, just as we always emphasize when trading commodities and futures.
In the case where traders may have had short positions in gold and silver, buy-stop orders should have triggered well before the breakout past the 1280 resistance for gold.
Moving forward, if you did not previously enter a long position in gold based on the situation in North Korea, we would not recommend a long position now UNLESS you use stops.
While there could be additional upside this will depend on how the media plays with the drama. But keep in mind the resistance at 1300 and the bullish resistance at ~1320.
Based on a current assessment of the situation we believe the maximum potential upside in gold is currently limited to around 1320. And this max upside assumes a continuation of the drama.
Thus, unless something drastic happens (e.g. missiles launched or something with a similar impact) traders should be very careful about entering long positions in gold at this point.
On the other hand, once the drama blows over you should look for short position entry. The best thing the drama has done is to recreate another nice short position entry once the drama fades.
Silver should be handled similarly using the support and resistance levels we have shown in the CCPM Forecaster.
Keep in mind that anything can happen. This assessment is based on our interpretation of recent and current events as of August 10, 2017.
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