Invest Intelligence When It Realy Matters
America's Financial Apocalypse
America’s Financial Apocalypse
How to Profit from the Next Great Depression
(also attached as a PDF below)
Part I: America’s Past, Present & Future
1 A Brief History of America
A Century of Bitter Sweet Transition
Monetary Reform
WWI and the Roaring ‘20s
Great Depression and the New Deal
World War II
Post-war Recovery and the Baby Boom
Peak Oil
War on Communism
Collapse of Communism
The Roaring ‘90s
Oil and the U.S. Economy
Oil Shows its Power
From Manufacturing to Technology
A Radical Change in Policy
The End of “Made in America”
Clinton’s Free Trade Disaster
Toxic Effects of Free Trade
2 Past Stock Market Performance
Performance During Major Events
American Wars
Global Events
Recent History of the Stock Market
The Great Bull
The Bubble Bursts
Greenspan’s Illusion
The Great Bubble Maestro
3 Social Change
American Unity in Decline
The Immigrant Factor
The Immigrant Threat
Social Disarray & Economic Decline
Capitalism or Socialism?
The Illusion of a Helping Hand
Societal Destruction by “Political Correctness”
Economic Decline and Recent Immigrants
Liabilities of Two-Income Households
NAFTA and Illegal Aliens
The Real Cost of Cheap Labor
4 Economics & Education
Greenspan’s Phantom Recovery
Greenspan’s Real Recovery
America’s Service Economy
Out of Balance
Illusion of Value, Reality of Scavengers
Productivity of the Service Economy
NAFTA’s Role in the Service Economy
Wealth & Poverty
America’s Poor
Poverty and Bankruptcy Reform
America’s Wealthy
How America Stacks Up
Consumption by Credit
Begging China for Jobs
Educating America
Problems Begin Early
America’s Socialist Educational System
Teaching in America
Who Wants to Be a Scientist?
Government Waste and Corruption
Government-Subsidized Fraud
Who’s to Blame?
5 The Future is NOW
Everything is a Cycle
Diamonds Aren’t Forever
Who Really Owns America?
The “Big 3:” A Lesson in Business
America’s Declining Edge
Core Research Derailed?
Early Signs of Trouble
America’s Future Scientists
World Supply & Demand for Oil
Peak Oil
America’s Health & Retirement
Where are the Pensions?
Social Security
Healthcare Crisis
Stock Market
“Good Ole Days” Are Gone
What to Expect
The Next Great Depression?
America the Bankrupt
A Nation of Lost Dreams
End of the Rainbow?
Part II: Weapons of Destruction
6 Financial Mismanagement
Federal & Trade Deficits
Misconceptions of GDP
Deficit Spending
Why Deficits Form
Consequences of Deficits
What’s Different this Time?
Federal Budget
China’s Role
When Deficits Turn Into Troubles
Off-Balance Financing
Mandatory Spending on the Rise
Comparison of World Deficits
How Did We Get in This Mess?
Where Do We Go From Here?
Federal Debt
Benefits and Dangers of Leverage
History of U.S. Debt Policy
GDP-Adjusted Debt
Dependence on Foreign Debt
Financial Terrorism
Interest Expense on Debt
The 30-Year is Returning: A Coincidence?
Consumer Debt
American Consumers
7 Healthcare in America: Prognosis Negative
Destroying America’s Competitiveness
Employers Have Options
Public Healthcare is Inadequate
Healthcare Myths
Best in the World?
The Exercise Myth
The Great American Drug Myth
Healthcare-Employment Link
Free Trade Has Decreased Coverage
Healthcare Costs
Boomer Liability
Health Insurance Costs
America’s Fastest Growing Industry
Behavioral Modification
How Does America Stack Up?
Why Are the Costs So High?
Costs of Prescription Medications
America’s Only Legal Monopoly
Money is Not the Solution
Uninsured in America
Lack of Insurance Affects Everyone
Why Are the Uninsured Increasing?
Medical Bankruptcy
Those Without Are Charged the Most
Medicaid
Medicare
America’s Medicare Landfall
Bills for Your Grandchildren
Universal Healthcare
Parallels with Wall Street
Conclusions
8 Social Security debacle
Historical Background
Changes to Benefits
Cost-of-Living Adjustments
How it Works
Payroll Taxes and Eligibility
Disability Insurance
Current Status
What Went Wrong?
Insolvency “Problem”
The Real Problem
Bush’s Solution: Private Accounts
Consequences of Privatization
More Rapid Insolvency
Decreased Guaranteed Benefits
Increased Federal Debt
Higher Risk
Increased Administrative Costs
Severe Damage to Specific Groups
Alternatives to Privatization
Why Privatization?
Conclusions
9 Retirement Blues
Pillars of Retirement
Health Insurance
Employment Income
Social Security
Retirement Savings and Pensions
Overview of the Pension Crisis
Problem #1: Underfunded Pensions
Problem #2: The Shift to 401 (k) Plans
Historical Background
Pension Plan Growth
That Was Then, This is Now
The Rise of 401(k)s
What are the Differences?
401(k)s Eliminate Employer Risk
Flexibility & Control of 401(k)s
Why 401(k) Plans are a Bad Idea
Pensions Perform Better and Cost Less
The Pension Problem
The Big Freeze
Freeze versus Termination
How a Freeze Effects Employees
Why the Freeze?
Underfunded Pensions
Life after Termination?
Fees
Corporate Restructuring
The PBGC
It Gets Worse
Conclusions
10 Real Estate Bubble
The Big Recovery Myth
The Real Estate Myth
Costs of Home Ownership
Cost of a Mortgage
Property Taxes
Other Expenses
Adjustments
Exceptions
Flipping and Rentals
Housing Bubble
Where is the Middle-Class Living?
Tourists Spots Are in Big Trouble
Even California Will Get Hit
Can You See the Bubble?
Further Evidence of a Bubble
Effects of the Bubble
The “Poor Effect”
The Next Financing Boom: Reverse Mortgages
Real Estate Cycles
Who Stands to Gain?
Mortgage Mania
Choices, Choices, Choices
ARMs
Mortgage Debt
The Real Estate ATM
Mortgage Money Machine
Securitization of the Credit Bubble
Secondary Mortgage Market
MBS Money Machine
Bigger than the Stock and Bond Markets
MBS & ABS Markets Created the Bubble
Risks of Collateralized Securities
Government-Sponsored Enterprises
Why GSEs are Dangerous
Troubles Already Showing
Lack of Government Controls
What to Look For
What Can We Expect?
Conclusions
Part III Greed, Desperation & Deceit
11 What the Government Hides
Hidden Liabilities
Bush’s Dirty Little Secret
What Happened to the Report?
Off-Budget Accounting
Economic Numbers
Discouraged by the Economy
Old Definitions Help
GDP Myths
Problems Measuring Living Standards
Failure to Account for Deficits
Failure to Account for Savings and Debt
Failure to Adjust for Net Output
Failure to Account for Resource Depletion
Failure to Report Year-over-year Changes
GDP is Inaccurate for up to Five Years
Hedonic Pricing
Altering Inflation Data
Altering GDP
Converting Inflation into Debt
Why Distort Inflation?
Hiding Debt
State Debt
Total Debt
Hiding America’s Decline
Service Economy
Living Standards
Domestic Outsourcing
Justifying Extortion
State and Local Government Taxes
Taxing the Poor, Vegas-Style
Death by Taxation
Land as Collateral?
Education
Global Oil Shortage
12 Corporate greed & fraud
Corporate Insiders
American Jobs
America’s Decline
Outsourcing & Free Trade
Current Trends
Free Trade: Great for American Companies
Comparative Advantage for Who?
Foreign Jobs Creation Act
Long-Term Consequences
America’s Most Powerful Industries
Financial Industry
Oil Industry
Record Profits
Corporate Tax Relief
Taxpayer & Investor Fraud
Healthcare Fraud
Reactive, Not Proactive
Accounting Fraud
Stock Options Backdating
13 Consumers & the Credit Bubble
Boomers Are Coming
America’s Boomer Crisis
Boomer Myths
World Boomer Crisis
Boomers Are Here To Stay
Double-edged Sword
The Credit Bubble
Real Estate-Credit Bubble Connection
Housing Bubble Affects Everyone
Will Asia Keep Buying Treasuries?
Irresponsible Credit Spending
Credit Cards for Lost Wages
America’s New Safety Net
Household Savings and Consumer Debt
Credit Card Death Spiral
Exploitation and Deceit
Fees Galore
“We Just Want to Help You”
The “Wealth Effect”
Conclusions
14 Foreign Players
America for Sale
Consequences of Foreign Ownership
Control by Foreign Bankers
Foreign Propaganda
Placing Strategic Assets with Enemies
Diminished Ability to Fight a War
Threat of OPEC
Oil Prices and Stock Market Returns
America’s Lifeblood
Iraq: A “Must Have”
War on Terror
National Security
Military Commercialization
China
China’s New Growth Weapon
China Gets Wheels
Commodity Bulls Live in China
Holding America Hostage
Best of Both Worlds
India
War on the Dollar
The Dollar: Backed by Oil
Attacking the Dollar
Part IV What to Do
15 Loaded Cannons
Current State of the Economy
The Economy is Improving?
Bush’s Record-Setting Achievements
If the Fed Says So, It Must Be True
American Workers
Where Are the Jobs?
Elderly Labor Force
America’s Oil Dependence
High Prices Hurt Americans More
Nothing Left
Oil
Government Benefits
16 Consequences
Inflation-Deflation Cycle
Inflation or Deflation?
Stock Market Collapse?
Higher Taxes
Two Scenarios
What Can We Expect?
Market Performance
What Correction?
Market Valuation
Similarities to the “Great Depression”
Consumer Credit
Overproduction
Income and Savings Disparity
Economic Dependence on A Few Industries
The “Crash of 1929”
The Next “New Deal”?
17 Investment Solutions
Lifestyle Trends
Baby Boomers
Healthcare
Travel and Leisure
Industries Adversely Affected
Future Healthcare
Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology
Problem #1: Patent Expiration
Problem #2: Lawsuits and Diminished American Confidence
Problem #3: Healthcare is Expensive and Poorly Accessible
Solution #1: Drug Price Controls
Solution #2: New Alternatives
Nutritional Supplements Market
Alternative Medicine
Solution #3: Cost-Effective Alternatives
Telemedicine
Healthcare IT
Leisure and Entertainment
Pet Care
Technology
Macroeconomic Trends: Metals
Base Metals
Gold Rush
Gold and Inflation?
This Time it’s Different
Gold ETFs
Other Precious Metals
Silver
Platinum
Palladium
Rhodium
Dollar
18 Investment Strategies
Wall Street Analysts
Wall Street Brokers
Mutual Funds
Fees that Kill
Two-Faced Funds
Lost in the Crowd?
Finding a Good Fund
Hedge Funds
Investment Strategy
The Myth of Beta
Risk that Really Matters
Hedging Inflation and Volatility
Hedging Against Deflation
Asset Classes
Cash
Bonds and Bond Funds
Equities
Mutual Funds
ETFs
Foreign Currencies
Industry Groups
Precious Metals
Energy and Utilities
Alternative Energy
Healthcare
Global Economies
China & India
Asset Allocation
Market Predictions
Risk Management
Managing Risk
Managing Economic and Market Risks
Final Thoughts