Opening Statement from the May 2016 CCPM Forecaster

Opening Statement from the May 2016 CCPM Forecaster

Originally published on May 1, 2016

Although the selloff in the USD continues, the longer-term trend remains bullish. The USD not only failed to bounce off its support at 94, it barely even took notice that this represented a technical support. This price action should have been interpreted as an indication that a more severe bearish move was forthcoming.

Once the USD Index declines below 92, there is a good chance the longer-term bullish trend will reverse into a bearish trend. But we would wait for a selloff in the USD Index below 90 to confirm this reversal. We must also consider other factors prior to forming this conclusion.