Opening Statement from the October 2019 CCPM Forecaster 

Opening Statement from the October 2019 CCPM Forecaster 

Originally published on October 6, 2019

For the first time in several years we are witnessing the convergence of numerous macro risk factors which have weighed on investor sentiment. Sentiment continues to be led by trade disputes as well as the impact of persistently negative bond yields and declining interest rates, but geopolitical variables should not be overlooked.

A rough assessment of the global macroeconomic landscape is sobering. The European economy continues to weaken as a result of the Washington-Beijing trade dispute in addition to social and political unrest.

Significant weakness in the EU will force the ECB to extend the date of its first interest rate hike in more than a decade further into the future. In fact, our previous forecast of another rate cut by the ECB materialized