Opening Statement from the November 2020 CCPM Forecaster

Opening Statement from the November 2020 CCPM Forecaster

Originally published on November 1, 2020 (pre-market release)

Overview

Over the past few weeks Europe has experienced an accelerated rate of new COVID-19 cases. In response officials have announced a reintroduction of lockdown measures which are likely to intensify in coming weeks as winter takes hold.

Germany has announced a four-week lockdown of bars, restaurants, and movie theaters. Meanwhile, France is under a more comprehensive lockdown partly as a result of recent violence. Italy is also seeing a worrisome resurgence in COVID-19 cases but has thus far only imposed restrictions on bars and restaurants.

Many other EU member nations have reintroduced a variety of lockdown measures and restrictions that are likely to intensify in coming weeks.

The U.S. is also experiencing a resurgence of COVID-19 cases. This has led to reintroduction of lockdown measures in many states. Although COVID-19 resurgence is worse in Europe, it appears as if the U.S. will soon catch up to and perhaps surpass that seen in Europe.

China has been the first major economy to recover from COVID-19. However, a small handful of new cases in two cities have prompted officials to initiate intense lockdown measures, while most of the country remains unaffected.

In recent months, many nations have debated whether or not to introduce additional stimulus to combat the devastating economic impact of COVID-19 lockdowns. The recent resurgence in COVID-19 cases has made the chance of additional stimulus much more likely, especially in Europe. 

The resurgence of COVID-19 cases has adversely impacted the capital markets. Notably, global stock markets have sold off and have not yet bottomed. Meanwhile, oil pricing has recently collapsed due to early estimates of the impact of the COVID-19 resurgence on oil demand...