Opening Statement from the November 2017 CCPM Forecaster 

Opening Statement from the November 2017 CCPM Forecaster 

Originally published on November 5, 2017 

Global growth continues to make gradual although mild progress, with upbeat momentum most notably in the EU and Japan. China also continues to show some improvements relative to the previous year, with an especially upbeat pickup in domestic consumption.

Although China’s massive financial system still faces significant long-term risks the government continues to take measures to curb issuance of bad loans and other reforms intended to reduce risk. 

The U.S. economy remains solid, although unimpressive in many respects. The unemployment rate reached yet a new low (4.1%), but we do not see anywhere near the kind of strength in the economy one would expect for such a low unemployment rate. Another indicator of the slack economic environment in the US is the persistently low inflation rate and low capacity utilization.

Global Risks Are Rising

It’s important to note that...