Opening Statement from the June 2020 CCPM Forecaster 

Opening Statement from the June 2020 CCPM Forecaster 

Originally published on June 31, 2020

Overview

As a result of the reckless actions of officials in response to the coronavirus outbreak, we have seen numerous unprecedented events over the past two months, including: two emergency rate cuts by the Federal Reserve smashing short-term interest rates down to a range of 0 to 25 basis points, a $2.2 trillion stimulus package from Washington, over $7 trillion in credit facilities created the Fed, a collapse in U.S. Treasury yields to record lows, a collapse in crude oil to negative pricing for the first time ever, the most rapid collapse in the U.S. stock market from record-highs into a bear market, the loss of 40.8 million jobs in the U.S., record-high unemployment, record-low PMI and GDP data for several countries.

As discussed in special webinars held in March (as well as in the Intelligent Investor and Market Forecaster) the impact from the response to COVID-19 is likely to result in a record-low collapse in GDP for many nations. In our view the world has been in recession since mid-March. Moreover, we stated in early April that most economic data from around the globe would be “off the charts.”