Opening Statement from the July 2019 CCPM Forecaster

Opening Statement from the July 2019 CCPM Forecaster 

Originally published on July 7, 2019

Overview

The global economy continues to feel the adverse impact of trade uncertainty. This dynamic has been reflected in the price of commodities. Meanwhile, although the U.S. economy remains relatively strong momentum has been waning for a number of months. Recently geopolitical events have weighed on crude oil pricing. Although the impact of geopolitics is likely to come and go in cycles, we expect this variable to remain an especially significant contributor to investor sentiment and thus short-term and perhaps even intermediate-term price movements. 

Crude Oil

As expected Brent and WTI crude oil prices declined over the short term, but mounted a nice rally after bottoming off support levels we previously identified. As traders seek to navigate near-term volatility, they should continue to utilize our (what have thus far proven as) highly predictive price support and resistance levels in combination with geopolitical variables. 

Gold

Fortunately, in the June issue we recommended traders take long positions in gold enabling them to capture huge profits from what would turn out to be fresh six-year highs. Our buy recommendation was obvious given the bounce off of the 1300 support. From there the rally strengthened, blowing past the 1320 bullish resistance. Although gold struggled to break past the 1350 bearish resistance, once it finally happened it soared to test the very significant 1400 bullish resistance. More details regarding how to manage this trade are presented in the gold forecast of this issue...