Opening Statement from the December 2015 CCPM Forecaster

Opening Statement from the December 2015 CCPM Forecaster

Originally published on December 6, 2015

On November 26, 2015 we released a video on the website entitled, “Getting More from Our Research” where we discussed our previous forecasts for the ECB to boost QE. We showed that only those who were aware of this in advance could have profited by shorting the euro.

On December 3, 2015, the ECB announced it would not expand the current amount of money allocated to QE, but it would extend the program by at least another six months. We believe the ECB will eventually expand the amount allocated to QE and will increase the duration of QE through at least the end of 2017.

Nonetheless, because currency traders had already priced in an expansion of the current bond buying program, once the ECB failed to meet the expectations of traders, the euro soared while the dollar sold off on December 3.

You should note that gold pricing did not rise on December 3 by the amount we would have expected based on the strong inverse correlation with the US dollar.

In contrast, on December 4, the BLS released a strong November jobs report, which adds more momentum favoring an interest rate increase in the US when the Federal Reserve meets on December 16. Finally, you should also note that the dollar did not mount much of a rally on the jobs data. This implies that the dollar already has a December rate hike priced into it.

Because higher interest rates are typically thought to be bearish for gold pricing, yet gold mounted a strong rally on the day that boosted the chance of a rate hike on December 16, some traders may be thinking that gold has entered a turning point and will thus continue its rally. Although we believe gold could have some additional upside, we believe this possible upside is quite limited. We believe the current rally is due primarily to short covering. 

The oil market remains a mess; not necessarily because oil prices are low, but due to the uncertainty and refusal of the Saudis to act rational and allow market-driven pricing. Certainly the collapse in oil pricing has caused S&P earnings to take a substantial hit. The oil industry job market has also suffered a great deal in the US and some parts of Canada. However, lower oil prices are good for consumers and most businesses outside of the oil industry.

Unfortunately, low oil pricing is one component of the deflationary force that appears to be strengthening. As you will recall, deflation is....