Opening Statement from the August 2020 CCPM Forecaster

Opening Statement from the August 2020 CCPM Forecaster

Originally published on August 3, 2020  (pre-market release)

Overview

Investors continue to express what we believe is an overly excessive level of optimism regarding expectations of a so-called “V-shaped” economic recovery. Much of this upbeat sentiment has been boosted further in recent weeks due to rising progress in the race to develop an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine. But even with the unprecedented level of monetary and economic stimulus provided thus far, global growth is sitting at record lows with very little clarity in sight.  

If we assume a best-case scenario for resolution to the economic collapse caused by the irresponsible response to the COVID-19 pandemic, things do not look particularly promising for the foreseeable future. If an effective vaccine is developed before the end of 2020 (an expectation we have held since March) it will still take many months to produce the vaccine in sufficient quantities. And it will require an even longer period to inoculate billions of people around the world with this vaccine.

But even after everyone has been inoculated with a COVID-19 vaccine, things have already changed forever moving forward. COVID-19 ushered in a watershed event much like how the attacks on the World Trade Center introduced the world to a new and more restricted way of life as a result of the “war on terror.” This is a separate discussion to be reserved for another time....