Opening Statement from the April 2020 CCPM Forecaster 

Opening Statement from the April 2020 CCPM Forecaster 

Originally published on April 5, 2020  

Overview

The economic and financial impact resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic has been unprecedented. As first discussed several weeks ago, we expect to see global economic data that’s “off the charts.”

Even with the recent $2.2 trillion stimulus package passed by Washington on March 27, we do not think there is any way the US can avoid a recession because we believe it’s already here. We first announced this conclusion in mid-March even though we assumed a stimulus package would be passed. 

COVID-19 Hysteria

The response by officials to COVID-19 has been improperly focused, poorly calculated and largely reckless. Meanwhile, the media has made things much worse. As a result, COVID-19 hysteria has led to widespread panic and fear.

First, the travel and tourism industries were hit hard. Now, just about everything is being hit hard as the US follows much of the world in locking down its economy. 

As early as March 1 when the US had only around 100 confirmed cases of COVID-19, we warned there would be an explosion of cases in the US. We found this troubling given that there was already a huge overreaction by officials.

By March 24, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US had soared to 50,000. Three days later the number of cases had doubled to more than 100,000 due to the rollout of testing. As of April 5, there are now more than 340,000 confirmed cases of the COVID-19 and over 9600 deaths. In reality, these numbers are not much different than those seen with the seasonal flu. The main difference is the lack of treatment options with COVID-19...